Shortfall may hit key market

Given WA's dwindling sheep numbers, sourcing enough sheep for this year's Ramadan will be a big task for live exporters.

In the past, Ramadan would signal an increase in live export demand for sheep, however, this year tight sheep numbers will make meeting export requirements difficult.

WA Live Export Association chairman John Edwards said August 21 (the start of Ramadan) was not far away and sheep supply in general, let alone Ramadan commitments, was a big concern for the industry.

"Sheep numbers are an obvious concern for the industry, with many fearing WA flock numbers are much less than the 17 million reported," Mr Edwards said.

"There are three industries competing for these sheep: live exporters, processors and the wool industry.

"At the moment, in real terms, the market is overheated. We saw this with the prices paid at this year's Katanning special sale.

"Another concern is that these high prices are an added incentive for producers to sell off sheep and put more paddocks to cropping."

Wellard Rural Exports managing director Steve Meerwald agreed that sourcing sheep over winter would be tight.

He said that because Ramadan was a commercial market, sheep would continue to be sourced from Australia, however, this year's Haij contract would see the majority of sheep sourced from North Africa.

"Importers are having to pay higher prices for lighter sheep than they have traditionally, which certainly is testing affordability," Mr Meerwald said.
"Importers are being forced to look elsewhere; although volumes continue to drop, core demand for Australian sheep remains.

He said that with a higher percentage of the Middle Eastern population being able to afford this choice of protein, he expected demand for sheep to continue.

"$120 won't be the base price for lamb but the agricultural industry needs to be aware that sheep prices are lifting," Mr Meerwald said

But Elders and Landmark do not think this year's Ramadan will see another increase in lamb prices.

Elders regional livestock coordinator Tim Spicer said that with three live export ships already struggling to fill their quota, he was doubtful exporters would get the numbers.

"Prices are strong, Ramadan or not. I don't think we will notice an increase in prices due to the festival this year," Mr Spicer said.

Landmark commercial livestock manager Damian Halls agreed that exporters would struggle to get sheep numbers for Ramadan this year, simply because they weren't there.

"It doesn't matter what price is offered; if the sheep numbers aren't there, they aren't there," Mr Halls said.

"Hopefully, we won't ship too many ewes as a result of short supply."

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