CSIRO predicts big changes to farmland use in next 30 years because of climate change

WA farmland could be used in vastly different ways by 2050 because of climate change, a CSIRO scientist will tell farm leaders at a conference today. CSIRO deputy director of agriculture and food Michael Robertson said farmers in the drier areas, such as the eastern wheatbelt, may, for example, only choose to plant a grain crop every three years, while producers in wetter areas of WA could benefit from opportunities to use land for other purposes. Dr Robertson is due to speak on how farmers can adapt to climate change at Muresk Institute in Northam, convened by Agriculture Minister Alannah MacTiernan. Dr Robertson told The West Australian ahead of the forum that WA was receiving about 30 per cent less winter rainfall than in the mid 1970s, following about one degree of warming. “This has caused the familiar patterns of our climate to break down,” he said. “No longer are we getting reliable rainfall in April, May and June to start the winter growing period, and farmers have adapted by often seeing into dry soil.” Dr Robertson said regardless of what action the world takes to reduce greenhouse emissions, the best scenario was for at least another one to two degrees of warming which would cause a further substantial decline in rainfall. He said while farmers were looking to profitably and sustainably reduce greenhouse emissions and had adapted well to a warmer climate, the need for much more adaptions and flexibility was inevitable. “We may end up in a situation where farmers may only grow crops out in the dry areas, for example every three years,” Dr Robertson said. “They may choose to hold off in the drier years and leave the land unutilised because it’s just too risky to plant a crop.” In wetter areas closer to the coast, climate change could present opportunities. “Farmers may be able to produce things they previously couldn’t because it has been too wet,” Dr Robertson said. “We have seen this going on with places like Katanning and Kojonup, which have traditionally been used for growing sheep and wool. “Previously it was too wet to grow crops — they got water logged. Drier winter helps those areas grow crops for profit as well as sheep.” Dr Robertson said another question to arise was where fruit and vegetables would be grown because of their very precise temperature requirements. “We might be able to grow capsicums in Manjimup in years to come, where as at the moment it is too cold,” he said.