Grain farmers optimistic after just in time rains changed the course of the season, prompting GIWA to issue almost average forecast

“Season saving” rains in early August arrived just in time for grain farmers, improving prospects for an average sized haul, and helping soften the blow from falling wheat prices. The Grain Industry Association of WA today issued its first production estimate for 2020 of 14.9 million tonnes, close to the State’s five-year average of 15.29 million tonnes. GIWA spokesman Michael Lamond said prior to last weekend’s widespread rain, and good rainfall in south coastal areas a week earlier, crops across the State were starting to lose potential because of below average winter rainfall. “Many growers were saying things would start to get ugly if rain didn’t arrive,” he said. Mr Lamond estimates the “just in time” rain arrested the decline of “several million” tonnes of grain worth hundreds of millions of dollars. He describes the recent rains as a "game changer" for the 2020 season. “These rains have halted the slide in grain yield potential that was occurring, although for most, it will push grain yield potential up,” he said. “This rain has made a huge difference, amounting to several million tonnes, but it’s not in the bag yet, we still need good finishing rains.” John Seabrook, who farms with wife Sonia and parents Tony and Julia at York, said he received 25mm of much-needed rain last weekend. Prior to that crops were thirsty and on the brink of losing potential. “It’s a huge relief and saved the season for us. Provided we get a kind finish, late August or early September, we now could be on track for an an average to above average year,” he said. Tony Seabrook, president of the Pastoralists and Graziers’ Association, said the increased yield potential was particularly important given falling wheat prices. Mr Seabrook said $300/tonne was seen as the critical point where farmers make money, but the global price had fallen below that point. GIWA estimates WA will produce 8.9 million tonnes of wheat in 2020. MarketAg consultant Peter Rees said more optimistic yield prospects following the rain would help offset the $20 fall in wheat prices over the past fortnight, to below $300/tonne. Global wheat prices had fallen because of higher wheat plantings in Russia, and improving yields in the Black Sea region, Canada and locally across Australia. “The market is expecting a global record for wheat production this year and the big supply is putting pressure on the price,” Mr Rees said. Mr Rees said other commodities, such as canola were driven by different dynamics and have been strengthening in recent weeks.