WA grain crop estimate passes 20mt as wet year gives WA farmers hope of best season on record

WA’s grain crop is almost certain to be a bin burster, with the forecast now sitting at just over 20 million tonnes and scope for further upside. With the massive, almost nine million-hectare harvest set to kick off in less than two months, the Grain Industry Association of WA is forecasting a 20.02mt haul — almost 30 per cent bigger than average. Based on current crop growth, timing of crop development, sub-soil moisture and the area planted, GIWA believes there could also be “significant upside” from here. Crop report author Michael Lamond declined to put a figure on any possible upside, noting there were still big risks to reaching or exceeding current crop estimates. “While growers are experiencing one of the best years in recent times and a record tonnage is likely, there are still the usual risks, along with some that WA growers have not experienced for a while,” Mr Lamond said. Risks include frost and damage from mice and locusts. A dire labour shortage also looms, with farmers still waiting on a solution from the State and Federal governments to quarantine the 1000 northern hemisphere workers needed to bring in the crop. “Frost is shaping up as the greatest risk,” Mr Lamond said. “While there is a big spread in crop development across the regions which will minimise the risk of large wipeouts from one-off frost events, the early start to the season means the whole crop will be exposed to a longer period of risk. “An upside to this is that recovery from frost is likely to be better than normal due to the good levels of sub-soil moisture.” GIWA said the favourable growing conditions had brought the increasing risk of mice damage to canola and lupins, particularly in the northern areas of the State, and locusts to all crops in eastern areas. The continued loss of crop area to waterlogging and the capacity of the areas to recover before harvest will also have an impact on final tonnage in those areas worst affected. Mr Lamond added that with the grain supply chain suffering from the tight labour supply and well-above average expected tonnage, harvest could be a drawn-out affair, exposing growers to higher-than-normal harvest losses. GIWA expects 11.3m tonnes of wheat will be harvested, 4.9mt of barley, 2.49mt of canola, 675,000t of oats, 550,000t of lupins and 112,000t of pulses. WA’s last production record was achieved in 2016 when farmers harvested 18.1mt. The five-year average is 15.64mt. Bulk handler CBH is putting emergency storage in place and is scrambling to recruit about 2000 casual workers over summer to receive the massive haul. Grain prices are also strong, and at current values the WA crop is worth about $7 billion to the WA economy.