Australia’s population one million larger than official figures, group warns

Australia could have one million more people than the official figures show, putting pressure on the nation’s infrastructure and housing supply.

According to Sustainable Population Australia, a gap in how the statistics are calculated means there are more people currently living in the country.

The group points out an anomaly in how the data is calculated, with only a person staying in Australia for 12 of the last 16 months being counted.

With the way the stats are counted, student visas, backpackers and skilled workers could be left out of the calculation.

SPA national president Peter Strachan says the figures are built for a low churn world, despite Australia’s economy being based on a high turnover rate.

“Australia has a measurement problem when it comes to population,” he said.

“Imagine if city planners in Las Vegas, which has a permanent population of 642,000, ignored the food and infrastructure demands arising from its 42 million annual visitor population that can almost double its population in peak periods.”

The call from the SPA follows figures released on Friday by The Centre for Population which predicts Australia will surpass 28 million people in the next six months.

This is despite the population growth rate stalling to a record low of 1.3 per cent, down from 1.5 per cent last year, with both migration and fertility rates on the decline.

Helping to offset a slowing birthrate is a longer life expectancy, with women expected to live until 87.1 while men to 83.4 from 2035-2036.

The SPA suggests more than 29 million people are currently living in Australia.

“After accounting for visa duration and residency definitions, there are over one million people who are physically present, but who are not captured in the Australian Bureau of Statistics Estimated Resident Population figures,” SPA spokesperson Erin Rolandsen said.

Ms Rolandsen says this was stretching Australia’s resources.

“Housing shortages, infrastructure bottlenecks and hospital congestion are not simply due to a failure to forecast demand,” she said.

“They are the result of measurement problems that have failed to consider the impact of those who are already here.”

On Friday, Treasurer Jim Chalmers said Australia was facing changing demographics, but the Centre for Population was helping to inform decisions that would build a stronger economy and lift living standards.

“We’ve made a lot of progress in our economy in the past few years, including when it comes to building more homes, strengthening our migration settings, investing in skills and helping to ease the cost of living for Australians, but we recognise the job is far from over,” he said