Qantas the heartbreaker sends Boeing back to the drawing board

The confidence of the world’s largest aerospace company, Boeing, has taken a massive hit after the flying kangaroo turned its back on its long-time faithful supplier and committed to 134 jets from rival Airbus to replace its 737s. The airlines of the world watch every move of a handful of operators including Qantas, which made the move against Boeing last month in demonstration of its ability to make or break an aircraft design at the stroke of a pen. Just over 20 years ago, Qantas’ mainline fleet was 100 per cent Boeing comprising its 747s, 767s and 737s. Since then, the national carrier has diluted its fleet by ordering Airbus’ A380, A330, A320 for Jetstar and now A320s and A220s to replace its venerable 737s. Qantas’ recent order for Airbus jets, instead of the Boeing 737 MAX, is the latest in a series of decisions made by the company that have had a profound effect on the sales fortunes of aircraft types. As far back as the 1940s and 50s, Qantas ignored pressure to buy British and ordered the US built Lockheed Constellation and then the Boeing 707, both of which went on to be outstanding successes. Meanwhile their British counterparts, the Avro Tudor and Comet, were disasters. Qantas’ order for the Boeing 767, and then its work to enable it to fly long distances over water, ensured its sales success. More recently, Qantas’ order for the Boeing 787 — which operates the non-stop Perth to London route — sent Airbus back to the drawing board for a complete redesign of its competing A350. Boeing must now start from scratch and replace its 737 with brand new aircraft that have more capability. The 737, first designed in the 1960s, has gone through four major overhauls: the Advanced, the Classic, the NG, and now the MAX. For airlines such as Virgin Australia and Bonza the 737 MAX is perfect but Qantas wants more capability in terms of higher capacity and much longer range, which only the highest spec version of the A320 family – the A321XLR, pictured below – can deliver. The dilemma for aircraft manufacturers is that low-cost airlines want the cheapest option while full-service airlines want capability. The cost to launch an all-new design is north of $US10 billion and for that investment a company must offer significant operational savings or passenger appeal. Boeing must go back to its founder Bill Boeing’s famous quote of “let no new improvement in flying and flying equipment pass us by” for inspiration. It must commit to the 797 if it is to regain an equal share of the civil airliner market. The 797 concept is a twin-aisle 220-280 seat aircraft with a range of about 8500km to replace the widely used 239-seat 757 and 245-290 seat 767 models, as well as the top end of the 737 MAX market. Its seating cross section would be 2-2-2 or 2-3-2 for a low cost operator. There are some that argue that Boeing ought to build a new single-aisle aircraft with a 3-3 configuration but that lacks imagination and would be a waste of precious investment funds. If Boeing is going to spend billions to build an all-new aircraft it needs to be something special and something that covers a wide segment of the market. The twin-aisle 250 passenger concept is not new and both Boeing and its legacy merged company McDonnell Douglas showed designs in the 1980s. In early 2020, Qantas chief executive Alan Joyce said Boeing would be “mad not to build” the 797. Before COVID-19 crushed the travel industry, Boeing had defined two versions: the 797-6 with 228 passenger capacity, which would fly 8300km, and the 797-7, which would seat 267 people in two classes. The range would enable the 797 to fly the vast majority of routes around Asia as well as most trans-Pacific routes and all trans-Atlantic routes. The huge appeal is its twin-aisles which lead to much faster boarding times and double the overhead storage space. There is no question that the 797 would be a passenger magnet, particularly in the post-COVID world where personal space is paramount. Boeing sees the market at about 5000 to 7000 aircraft over 20 years and the 797 as a stimulus to the market, creating thousands of new routes thus new business.