Beyond the Saleyards: Processing patterns highlight structural change in WA’s Sheep Sector

Western Australia’s sheep and lamb sector has undergone a clear structural shift over the past 12 months.

When processing trends, turnoff data, live export movements and market activity are combined, the message is unmistakable: the WA flock is smaller, supply is tightening, and market behaviour is adjusting accordingly.

A decade-long analysis of monthly processing percentages shows how the supply pattern has changed.

Traditionally, around 35% of the annual sheep and lamb kill occurs from July to November.

In both 2024 and 2025, that proportion has lifted significantly, reaching as high as 42% in 2024 and remaining close to 38% this year.

These percentages reveal that lambs are being drawn forward earlier, with stronger prices pulling more supply into the first half of the season.

As a result, fewer lambs remain available later in the year, which is now evident across saleyards, grids and private-market activity.

The shift is most pronounced in mutton. Last year’s liquidation phase saw nearly half of the annual mutton kill occur in just five months.

This year, the July–November share has fallen to around 34%, not because processors reduced demand, but because grown sheep numbers have tightened dramatically.

The industry is now dealing with the flow-on effects of that drawdown.

Across the full year, total turnoff, including slaughter, live export and interstate transfers, remains above sustainable levels.

While live export has softened, this also reflects a smaller flock and reduced availability of suitable sheep rather than any meaningful rebuild.

Saleyards, private treaty sales and direct-to-works bookings all show the same trend: WA is operating with fewer sheep, and that reduced supply is shaping price and market dynamics.

These supply constraints have supported stronger mutton pricing, a cautious and slowly improving competition for breeding stock, and that more cautious approach by producers to flock rebuilding intentions begin to shift.

For processors and buyers, the challenge has been to secure reliable supply amid increasing volatility.

Looking ahead, tight supply is expected to continue through 2025–26.

Sheep enterprises in mixed-farming systems will need to financially compete with cereals, placing greater emphasis on breeding efficiency, genetics and structured marketing decisions.

Procurement will need to be more disciplined, with earlier planning, forward pricing and clearer communication between producers, agents and processors.

AGORA Livestock continues to support this transition with Base+ forward pricing, digital booking visibility and national marketplace reach, providing the clarity and structure needed in a tightening supply environment.

To all producers, agents, processors, buyers and our more than 11,000 registered users, AGORA extends a genuine thank-you for your support throughout this transformative year.

We wish you a safe and successful end to harvest, a productive season ahead, and a very Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year. We look forward to working with you in 2026 and beyond.