Flock size and composition cuts local lupin demand by 400,000 tonnes a year

A decline in the number of sheep in WA and a change in the composition of the flock has slashed at least 400,000 tonnes of local demand for lupins during the past 20 years. Trends in lupin growing, and supply and demand, were hot topics during agronomist Michael Lamond’s presentation at a recent Lupin Industry Field Day at Northam. Mr Lamond, pictured, said the lupin industry had experienced a “fundamental shift” in lupin uses during the past 20 years, caused by a change in the sheep flock. He said about 400,000 tonnes of demand had disappeared as WA’s sheep flock had declined from more than 30 million in the early 1990s to 14.3m in 2019. While official figures are yet to be released this year, industry insiders believe the WA flock has now declined to about 12m head. Mr Lamond said in the 1990s, lupin production peaked at 1.6m tonnes, and a third was used to satisfy demand for feeding WA sheep. Now, less than 100,000 tonnes of whole grain lupins are fed to sheep in WA. “That demand for lupins to feed sheep is no longer there,” Mr Lamond said. “In the old days as well, everything was fed lupins ... it was essentially a Merino flock with some meat sheep and lambed later. “Everyone fed out 200g of lupins to their ewes in autumn a day, and for 16 weeks or 20 weeks, lambed down on green feed and a lot of lupins went down across the State.” An increase in the amount of meat sheep in WA had also changed the demand for lupins, Mr Lamond said, with meat sheep traditionally lambed earlier and fed a mixed ration made up grain and pellets fed through lick feeders and tail feeders, with less need for green feed. The creation of and increasing popularity of lick feeders for sheep had also softened demand for lupins as sheep feed, he said. “There are more meat sheep in the flock now,” he said. “So you have declining sheep numbers and a fundamental change in the flock. “Meat sheep lamb early.” WA lupin production has declined exponentially during the past 20 years, from a peak of 1.6m tonnes a year in 1999 to 350,000 tonnes last year. The Grain Industry Association of WA has forecast a 420,000-tonne lupin crop in WA this year. Mr Lamond said GIWA had originally “understated potential production” in WA, with the lupin area thinning out in the northern Wheatbelt but increasing in the central and southern Wheatbelt this year. “The lupins are going gangbusters at the moment,” he said. Mr Lamond said there were about 1.1 million tonnes of stock feed pellets produced in WA each year, using about 250,000 tonnes of lupins. He said a “real problem” the industry faced was finite domestic demand and a low-grade export market. “That is the guts of it,” Mr Lamond said. “That is the other issue we have — it is an immature crop still and there is a large mixed swing in yield from year to year .” The dynamic of where lupins are grown had also changed since 2008, and production had been “a bit up and down”, Mr Lamond said. “During the past five years, there has been an exodus in lupins in the north and an increase in plantings in the south,” he said. “More lupins are being grown in the central grain belt, and there has been a fundamental shift in plantings.” Mr Lamond said the range in areas growing lupins had created some difficulty for WA’s only lupin breeder, Australian Grains Technology. “They have a big part of the State to breed for now, with different requirements, different soil types,” he said. Mr Lamond said canola was providing “big competition” to lupin plantings, and while it “doesn’t yield a lot on average” it didn’t have the “up and downs” of lupin yield, but it did have a higher price and had weed control options. He said barley was also providing competition with lupins for sheep feed. “When you go back to 1995, there were about 1.2 million hectares of lupins in WA,” he said. “It was pretty much our only break crop other than pasture. “Now, there is more break crop area but a lot less pasture.” Mr Lamond said a “lack of profit” for lupin growers had created issues, with farmers needing an average of about 1.1-1.4t/ha to make a decent profit.