Australia still the world’s biggest sheepmeat exporter as flock grows to 16 year high: MLA

Australia’s sheep flock has hit a 16-year high of 78.75 million head after an “exceptional” post-drought recovery, cementing the nation’s position as the world’s biggest sheepmeat exporter. The figures, revealed in Meat and Livestock Australia’s latest quarterly sheep projections report on Tuesday, paint a promising outlook for the industry in coming years. The report also confirms MLA’s February flock growth predictions, vindicating the research and development body after it was criticised by outspoken livestock analyst Simon Quilty, who had claimed the figure was 5.5 million head too high. It comes on the back of three years of above-average rainfall in key sheep-producing regions nationwide — excluding parts of South West WA and Tasmania — which MLA said had “driven an exceptional recovery post-drought”. With breeding ewe numbers also climbing to the highest level since 2007, at 46.14 million head, MLA senior market information analyst Ripley Atkinson said the improvement in sheep numbers would deliver strong volumes of finished-weight stock to market. “With improved genetics and on-farm management driving historically elevated carcase weights, we will see record lamb production and export volumes, as well as high mutton production,” he said. “This will ensure Australia can continue to meet its domestic and ever-increasing global demand for high quality sheepmeat.” Lamb carcase weights were projected to ease to 24.7kg this year and continue declining to 24.2kg in 2025, while sheep carcase weights were expected to ease to 25.2kg this year — 3 per cent above the 10-year average. Lamb production was predicted to reach 540,000 tonnes this year, topping 2022’s record production of 534,500 tonnes. It is then tipped to increase to 548,000 tonnes next year before easing in 2025 to 537,000 tonnes, after successive years of high mutton slaughter reducing lamb supply. Mr Atkinson said the supply of lambs entering the market would continue to flow through the system, with another good lamb drop expected this season. “This will allow for continued high slaughter numbers, flowing through to increased production in 2023 and 2024,” he said. Mutton production was expected to climb to 197,000 tonnes this year, following strong weekly kill numbers to July, as processors prioritise mutton over lamb. Meanwhile, Mr Atkinson predicted sheepmeat exports from Australia’s biggest competitor, New Zealand, would decline in the medium to long term. “This is due to a number of factors, but key among them are the changes in land use patterns within New Zealand, which are having a detrimental impact on the New Zealand flock size and have subsequently affected production,” he said. “Lower sheep production results in declining exports from New Zealand. “This means Australia has a prime opportunity to further increase our grasp as the world’s largest sheepmeat exporter. “Strong volumes are expected to continue and interest in Australian lamb across domestic and international markets remain extremely solid.” MLA also forecast an improvement in prices for both the National Trade Lamb Indicator and National Heavy Lamb Indicator until late September. The NTLI is expected to lift by 4.5 per cent or 24¢ to 553¢/kg carcase weight by September 30, while the NHLI is tipped to climb to 569¢/kg — a 7.4 per cent improvement on the current price.