High trends for global cattle markets despite trade uncertainty and unpredictability

Global cattle markets have trended higher in 2025 despite uncertainty and unpredictability since US President Donald Trump was elected in January, but could change if a trade war erupts between major trading blocs.

Rabobank’s RaboResearch division said in its Q2 2025 Global Beef Quarterly that any change to trading arrangements with the United States could affect the global beef market.

The report expected the flow of trade to be maintained in the second half of 2025 but could face upheaval if the US enters a trade war with Europe and China.

RaboResearch senior animal proteins analyst Angus Gidley-Baird said European cattle prices had experienced a growth in price during the first half of the year, putting them “in line” with North American cattle prices.

He said both Europe and the US were experiencing affected cattle supplies, with bluetongue virus in the UK, and New World screwworm in Mexico causing the US to close their cattle exports from Mexico for fears of potential infestation, and challenging production where supplies are lower than projected.

Rabobank expects overall beef production in Australia to remain high and prices steady despite the varying impacts of seasonal conditions.

“Widespread rain through Queensland, the largest cattle-producing State, in late March and early April provided some respite for producers that were facing drier conditions,” Mr Gidley-Baird said

“This rain has allowed most to now hold cattle and possibly increase numbers slightly, providing support for cattle prices in April and into May.

“At the same time, areas of southern Australia have been selling increasing numbers given ongoing dry conditions.”

Australian cattle prices have ranged between 3.41c/kg and 3.78c/kg in the first four months of 2025.

Global beef production is expected to decline throughout the rest of the year, with the report predicting a contraction of two per cent.

“The largest contractions are expected to happen in Brazil and New Zealand, with contractions also expected in Europe, the US, and China,” Mr Gidley-Baird said.

“Australia is one of the few regions expected to see a production increase.”

Mr Gidley-Baird said emerging reports state that because of more expensive or unavailable US beef, buyers from China are eyeing suppliers in Australia, New Zealand, and South America.

“Additional so-called reciprocal tariffs for identified countries are on hold until early July, and the US-China tariff escalation has also been put on hold until early August,” he said.

“While negotiations are ongoing, we are starting to see some redistribution of beef trade volumes around the world.”