National survey finds nearly half of producers intent on increasing lamb production

WA sheep producers are aiming to increase the State’s lamb production by 100,000 head next year, up 2 per cent year-on-year, despite the challenges around cost and labour, according to the latest survey. The inaugural Sheep Producer Intentions survey, released on November 28, found 40 per cent of WA producers and nearly half of all Australian sheep producers were looking to increase the size of their flocks in the next 12 months. The joint report, formally known as the Meat and Livestock Australia and Australian Wool Innovation Sheepmeat and Wool survey, surveyed 1963 sheepmeat and wool producers between September 29 and October 2. The report found there was a lamb flock size of 5.15 million head in WA for 2022, with producers’ intentions to increase the State’s lamb production to 5.25m in 2023, up 2 per cent. Producers were initially invited to complete an online survey, with a smaller number of phone interviews also conducted. Meat and Livestock Australia market analyst Jenny Lim noted the survey’s new format allowed for a deeper understanding of the flock’s breed make-up. “The new survey format also analysed sales channels used by producers across different States and farm size,” Ms Lim said. “Saleyards continue to be the dominant sales channel for producers, further highlighting the importance of saleyards for the industry. “Specifically, 58 per cent of producers said that saleyard auctions were the main channel used, with over-the-hooks sales the second-most used method at 23 per cent.” In addition, larger producers with 10,000 or more sheep were more likely to use direct sales. NSW had the strongest saleyard usage, with 73 per cent of producers using this channel for sheep and lamb sales. The survey noted 46 per cent of producers were looking to increase their flocks in 2023, with 60 per cent hoping to expand operations and 47 per cent expecting favourable conditions in the next year. There were strong growth expectations in Queensland and NSW, with larger producers indicating an intention to increase or maintain their flock numbers. “Analysis of the reported change in the number of lambs suggests a forecast increase of approximately 1.7m lambs over the estimated 2022 flock size — an increase of 6 per cent on the 2022 estimates,” Ms Lim said. “This result highlights the importance of considering the reported changes in flock size rather than just producers’ disposition to change.” Regarding potential industry hurdles, most producers surveyed were expecting an increase in input costs and for finding skilled labour to be more difficult in the next year. Despite these headwinds, the sentiment around the sheepmeat industry was extremely positive, with a 67 per cent net positive rating among sheepmeat producers across Australia. “With Merinos making up 40 per cent of the total lamb flock and prime lambs at 35 per cent, the challenges around costs and labour seem to have less of an impact on decision making around flock growth than may have been previously expected,” Ms Lim said.