WA grain farmers set to plant a bigger grain crop but pull back wheat plantings

WA grain farmers are bolstering their winter crop plantings in line with a national trend that has Australian farmers putting a record 24.5 million hectares in the ground this year.

Rabobank’s 2025-26 Australian Winter Crop Outlook — released this week — projected a 2.1 per cent increase to WA’s cropping area to 8.83 million hectares, up from 8.64 million hectares last year.

Crop plantings are forecast to increase across all states, except for South Australia, where drought-like conditions are hitting farmers hard, while dry conditions have also hampered plantings in Victoria.

RaboResearch senior analyst and report author Vitor Pistoia said the State’s southern cropping areas had received a “timely rainfall” heralding a “good start to the season”, with early indications of national 53.9 million tonne crop.

“As of mid-May, the weather outlook for the season ahead is for average rainfall for the eastern states and some chance of above average rainfall for WA by spring time,” he said.

The outlook report states that an overall rise in planted area across Australia, estimated at 24.5 million hectares, is expected to benefit most crops, except wheat.

WA farmers are pulling back their wheat plantings more than farmers in any other states, on the back of rising fertiliser prices, poor prices and a late break meaning farmers have changed their crop rotations.

A reduction in sheep flocks and a rise in crops, the rise of oat farming, and a drop in national wheat plantings, were identified as the three largest production shifts in the outlook.

The report revealed the Albanese Government’s plan to ban live sheep exports by May 2028 had many mixed farmers choosing to “reduce or eliminate their flocks” which was likely to lead to an increase in feed lotting. .

“This decision is boosting cropping areas and is expected to support area increases in the coming seasons,” the report said.

“It could also lead to an increase in feedlots, which would benefit the industry by reducing its reliance on exports for marketing grains.”

Oat plantings are predicted increase due to strong prices with prices reaching up to $450 per tonne.

The reduction in wheat was expected in the report, which stated the wheat margin outlook was “bleak” due to improved soil moisture following a 5.7 per cent increase in the 2024-25 late season break.

“Pulses other than lupins are expanding on the back of better gross margin outlooks, with reports of trials as far north as the Moora-Dalwallinu region,” the report said.

Mr Pistoia said the reduction in wheat planting can be credited to a less enthusiastic outlook on wheat prices and crop rotation.

“Overall, this decline in wheat planting is attributed to rising fertiliser prices and less enthusiasm about the outlook for wheat prices,” he said.

“Crop rotation is also a factor, as last year’s late seasonal break led to wheat replacing canola and pulses at the eleventh hour and those farmers will now be looking to plant a different crop.”

Canola planting in WA has increased minimally by 0.4 per cent to 3.2 million hectares, in comparison to a decline in the eastern states, with Mr Pistoia forecasting it to remain “virtually stable”.

“There is a supportive outlook for canola, although the price direction varies between genetically-modified and non-GM canola,” he said.

“Geopolitical turmoil is pressuring the GM-canola market, while demand from the EU is driving non-GM fundamentals.”