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Federal election 2022: Why Pearce is shaping up as one of key battleground seats in upcoming poll

In March, Defence Minister Peter Dutton predicted that if the Coalition retained Pearce they would win the election. It is easy to see why. If there is a single electorate tailor-made for Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s pitch to voters, it is Pearce. Aspirational. Outer suburban. Family-focused. Populated by the kind of “quiet Australians” who swung behind Morrison in their droves when faced with then Labor leader Bill Shorten’s heavy-taxing reform agenda in 2019. Mr Morrison, in his staunch backing of hand-picked Warringah candidate Katherine Deves over her anti-transgender views, made clear his political arithmetic. Refusing to dis-endorse a woman who described trans kids as “surgically mutilated and sterilised” will hurt the electoral prospects of a swag of moderate Liberals under siege by climate-focused independents in electorates that were once inner-city strongholds — including Curtin. But Mr Morrison calculates his pathway back to The Lodge lies elsewhere. The loss of one or more of those inner-suburban seats can be offset by convincing the millions of Australians that reside on the fringes of those same cities he remains the best man for the job. Those people live and work in suburbs like Wanneroo, Tapping, Clarkson, Alkimos and Yanchep that now dominate the drastically redrawn electorate of Pearce. They are people like Lollipop Playland and Café Butler franchise owner Vanessa O’Donnell, whose business has been smashed by COVID restrictions. Morrison’s strident focus on economic management — and clear desire to move on from the pandemic (and the associated botched vaccine and RAT rollout) — resonates with Ms O’Donnell. “I haven’t decided but I am leaning towards the Liberals because they’re better for business,” she said. “I’ve traditionally been a Labor voter but I’m worried about Labor now — their spruiking of higher wages in particular really scares me off. Higher wages are great but there is no way I could afford them in the current climate.” For Anthony Albanese and Labor, Pearce is just as vital. Internal polling shows Labor maintains a slight lead in the seat, which is regarded as the party’s best chance to make gains in WA – ahead of Swan, despite the latter’s smaller Liberal margin (3.2 per cent). The premature retirement of former Attorney-General Christian Porter has created an opening that Labor is desperate to exploit after decades of disappointment in the west. Unproven historic rape allegations, strenuously denied by Mr Porter, ultimately forced the man once regarded as a potential future Prime Minister out of Pearce, which has been held by the Liberals at every election since it was created in 1990. It was a massive blow after the popular local member defied doomsday predictions in 2019 to improve his margin to 7.5 per cent — although that was later slashed to 5.2 per cent in a dramatic boundary redistribution. Pearce is now almost unrecognisable, having lost all of the rural areas north of Perth and in the Swan and Avon valleys to Durack and O’Connor, as well as Ellenbrook to Hasluck – while picking up a considerable chunk of the City of Wanneroo from Cowan. Pearce’s mortgage belt, battler status makes it a prime audience for Mr Morrison’s pitch to economic-focused voters far more concerned about their home loan than social issues. And that pitch will be amplified by the prospect of rapidly rising interest rates, with the first of what is expected to be a series of hikes arriving as soon as Tuesday. However, while Mr Morrison himself is seen as a positive for the Coalition in the outer suburbs of Sydney and Brisbane, Labor believes attitudes toward the Prime Minister among voters in Pearce are decidedly different and should help the party across the line. In a bid to replace Porter in what is now an entirely suburban seat, Labor has recruited star candidate Tracey Roberts — the long-time Wanneroo Mayor — and given her the green light to shower her potential constituents with election commitments. Labor has already pledged nearly $5 million worth of grants for upgrades to a wide range of sporting clubs and cultural groups, as well as $15 million for preparatory infrastructure works in the Neerabup Industrial Area and $25 million for a new pool in Alkimos. “I have lived and worked in this area for more than two decades. I know my community very well, and I know what our community needs from a Federal Member of Parliament,” Ms Roberts said. “I have a proven track record as Mayor of the City of Wanneroo. I am an effective advocate to both State and Federal Governments and understand the importance of having a strong partner in Canberra to get things done.” The Liberal candidate, Linda Aitken, is a Wanneroo councillor and clinical nurse specialist. She is also a member of Margaret Court’s Victory Life Church, where she practises the same brand of Pentecostal Christianity favoured by Mr Morrison. While Ms Roberts has regularly appeared at doorstops and fielded questions from reporters — including defending Mr Albanese over his embarrassing unemployment rate blunder — Aitken’s only media forays so far have come alongside Mr Morrison. It was the Prime Minister himself who announced both of the Liberal’s election pledges for Pearce to date: a combined $3.6 million for upgrades to the Wanneroo Districts Cricket Club and Wanneroo BMX Club. Both Ms Roberts and Ms Aitken nominated healthcare and rising bills as the primary issues raised with them by voters while canvassing. “There is a lack of appropriate health service, including aged care in the northern suburbs within Pearce and this constantly comes up when I’m out chatting with locals,” Ms Aitken said. “Additionally, Pearce is a seat full of young families so the cost of living is also a really big issue.” Ms Aitken brushed off the suggestion that Mr Porter’s high-profile exit from politics would be a drag on the Liberals’ prospects in Pearce. “The Liberal party has done a terrific job delivering for the people in Pearce through funding the widening and extension of the Mitchell Freeway (and) funding the extension of the railway to Yanchep,” she said. “This election isn’t about previous candidates this is about me being the best representative for the people of Pearce.” In another sign of the importance of Pearce to both parties, Roberts and Aitken both rank among the election campaign’s biggest social media spenders in WA. Since January, Roberts has splashed out more than $15,000 on ads running on Facebook and Instagram – while Aitken has spent close to $11,000 in the same period. Among WA candidates, that places them behind only incumbent Cowan MP Anne Aly — who has shelled out more than $25,000 for online promotion since the start of the year. But all that spending appeared to have generated little return on investment among more than a dozen voters canvassed by The Sunday Times this week — just one of whom could correctly identify Ms Roberts as the Labor candidate. No one could name Ms Aitken — despite three unsuccessful tilts at the State seat of Butler dating back to 2013. When it came to the party leaders, negativity reigned — although Mr Morrison’s “you don’t have to like your dentist — you just have to trust he knows how to use the drill” approach seemed to resonate. Gail Luitingh, out for a walk at Mindarie Marina with husband Andre, said she was torn on both men. “ScoMo has his strengths but I have this underlying feeling that I can’t trust what he is saying. I’m not a great fan of the guy,” she said. “But Albo just hasn’t got the people appeal. I don’t listen to him the same way as I listen to Scott Morrison. He comes across as a good guy but I just can’t see him as a prime minister.” Both she and Mr Luitingh were leaning towards the Greens first, but were still weighing up which major party would get their preferences. “ScoMo has definitely dropped the ball in certain areas – like the Solomon Islands – but he has done a reasonable job,” Mr Luitingh said. “Bill Shorten let the Labor party down badly in 2019 and I think that is still affecting people’s perception of Labor. “Albo has to get rid of that bad taste that has been left in people’s mouths — and he didn’t help himself with his first week.” Worryingly for Mr Albanese, the most consistent feedback from voters centred on his voice. Clarkson resident Richard Batka — a life-long Labor supporter — said he would back Mr Albanese but wasn’t happy with the choice of leader. “I pay attention to the way people speak and Albo always sounds like he is on the piss. I think the Liberals will just get back in because of it,” he said. Another female Mindarie resident, who asked not to be named, was more blunt: “I’m voting for Scomo. I can’t listen to Albo speaking for three years.” Many — including young mum Sasha Peters – were yet to tune into the campaign at all. Ms Peters said she felt sorry for Mr Albanese in the wake of his unemployment rate gaffe but felt he needed to be given a chance. She also wasn’t marking Mr Morrison down for his handling of the COVID pandemic given WA had not experienced the protracted lockdowns in other States. She nominated a better commitment to helping families pay for daycare as her biggest issue but — in a sign of Mr Albanese’s lack of early cut-through — had no idea that was already a key plank of the Labor platform. Working at the picturesque The Beach House in Alkimos, 19-year-old Caitlin admitted to not even knowing who Mr Albanese was. She said she received all her news from social media and would rate her interest in politics as “a negative 3”. “My parents vote Labor and they will likely force me to too,” she said. “Climate change is important to me though, I’d like to have kids and don’t want the world to end by 2050.” Outside the pub, Eden Beach grandmother Caz Waight had a suggestion that captured the overall sentiment in Pearce just over three weeks out from May 21. “I don’t like election campaigning, I think that money could be much better spent on something else,” she said. “I don’t like trying to find fault in everything. People need positive direction — especially from political leaders. If you’re surrounded by negative people you can’t help but become negative.”

investigationFederal election 2022: Why Pearce is shaping up as one of key battleground seats in upcoming poll

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Federal election 2022: Why Pearce is shaping up as one of key battleground seats in upcoming poll