Poll shows Libby Mettam’s Liberals hold 54-46 two-party preferred lead over Labor with Roger Cook as Premier

The WA Liberals would win an election held today, according to remarkable new polling that reveals dramatic upheaval in the State’s political landscape. Mark McGowan’s shock departure, coupled with deeply unpopular Aboriginal heritage laws — which the government has battled to explain — appear to have critically damaged Labor’s prospects in the two short months since Roger Cook took over as Premier. The Utting Research poll of 1000 West Australians, conducted via robocall between Tuesday and Thursday, found Libby Mettam’s Liberals holding a 54-46 two-party preferred lead. That is a 15-point swing from Utting’s last poll, carried out two days after Mr McGowan quit at the end of May, that found Labor ahead 61-39. The former premier won the 2021 election — which was held near the peak of his COVID-era popularity — with an unprecedented 70 per cent of the two-party preferred vote. The embarrassing Liberal obliteration reduced the party to just two Legislative Assembly seats — half the four won by the Nationals, who assumed the mantle of formal Opposition. Labor was widely expected to easily win again in 2025, leaving the Liberals in the wilderness until at least the end of the decade. But that belief has been turned on its head, with the Utting poll finding the Liberals’ primary vote has surged to 37 per cent — up from 28 per cent in the survey done at the end of May. Labor’s primary had collapsed to 32 per cent, down from 52 per cent in the last poll. The Nationals had 6 per cent of the primary vote and the Greens 10 per cent, with 15 per cent of voters parking their support away from the four main parties. The poll also asked respondents their position on refreshed Aboriginal cultural heritage laws, which came into effect on July 1 and have been a lightning rod for criticism. Tellingly, 57 per cent of those polled said they did not approve of the regime — with only 23 per cent in favour and 19 per cent unsure. John Utting, the managing director of Utting Research, said the controversial heritage laws were one of three major factors working against Labor and driving the Liberal resurgence. The others were the exit of Mr McGowan and Mr Cook’s difficulty establishing his own brand with the public — especially because he was being compared in voters’ minds with the former premier and had immediately inherited a major crisis in the form of the heritage laws. A historically popular leader, Mr McGowan held appeal with sections of the public with whom Labor has traditionally struggled to gain traction, such as older and more affluent voters. “It’s the end of an era,” Mr Utting said. “Labor’s ascendency in WA is over. It was never a Labor Government — it was a Mark McGowan Government. Now that he has left the scene, everything is different.” In a further blow to Labor, the poll found Mr Cook now trailed his Liberal opponent Ms Mettam on personal approval rating. Just 27 per cent of respondents approved of the Premier with 37 disapproving and the remainder undecided, returning a net approval rating of minus 10. Ms Mettam had the approval of 31 per cent of those polled, 24 per cent disapproved and 45 per cent had not yet made up their minds, returning a net approval rating of 7. In May’s poll, 42 per cent approved of Mr Cook while 26 per cent disapproved, for a net approval rating of 16. Ms Mettam at that point enjoyed the backing of 31 per cent of respondents while 33 per cent were unimpressed, returning a net approval rating of minus 2. “Believe it or not, the Liberal Leader is more popular with voters than the Premier,” Mr Utting said. “The State Government hasn’t shot itself in the foot — rather, it’s managed to blow off both legs. “It’s caught in a double bind: a new Premier yet to establish himself and some very unpopular legislation.” If replicated Statewide, the 24-point swing from the last election depicted in the Utting poll would hand the Liberals — combined with their alliance partner, the Nationals — an additional 25 seats. That would mean they held 31 of the 59 available Legislative Assembly seats, tipping Labor out of government. Polls by robocalling tend to skew towards an older, more conservative demographic, while Labor’s success under Mr McGowan had been with less engaged younger voters. Mr Utting is one of Australia’s most experienced pollsters and campaign strategists. In May 2020, a poll ahead of the 2021 state election conducted by Mr Utting returned a two-party preferred vote 64-36 in favour of Labor, the first sign of the approaching red tidal wave. Subsequent Utting polling in five WA seats commissioned by The West Australian that September correctly predicted Scarborough, Hillarys, Dawesville, Kingsley, and Joondalup would all fall to Labor with double-digit margins. In March last year, two months prior to the Federal election, Utting polling correctly placed Swan, Hasluck and Pearce on track to fall to Labor, with Tangney — held at that point by a margin of 9.5 per cent — on a knife’s edge. Labor won all four.