Federal election 2025: Ben O’Shea: Crossbench control was nothing but a dream for minor parties

After weeks of published polls widely predicting a Labor minority government, you could forgive the 19 Lower House crossbenchers in the 47th Parliament of Australia for pre-emptively composing wish lists for the next three years. They should’ve saved the ink. Despite an uninspiring first term in office, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese convinced Australians he deserved not just a second term in the Lodge, but a historic majority with which to govern. All of those Utopian dreams of a minority government, where a diverse array of ideas are promoted and major-party agendas are curtailed, took a dive faster than the PM from that stage in the Hunter Valley. So, what happened to the predicted exodus away from the major parties? At the time of publication, the Australian Electoral Commission was recording an increased vote for minor parties and independents compared with the 2022 Federal Election, up from a then-record 31.71 per cent to 34.6 per cent. Turns out the only meaningful exodus was from voters deserting the Coalition, especially in Peter Dutton’s own seat of Dickson. Instead of the record support for independents or minor parties translating into increased seats, it appears punters have backed in Mr Albanese in a number of seats previously held by the Coalition. Polls throughout the campaign suggested people trusted the Albanese Government over the Coalition, when it came to leading the nation out of a cost-of-living crisis, even though Labor oversaw it. A challenging international environment, headlined by Trump Administration tariffs mid-campaign, added even more uncertainty to the country’s outlook. With that as a backdrop, it seems as though many people ultimately preferred the devil they know. And this may have been what hurt the chances of independent candidates, and cost the Greens seats in the House of Representatives too. It’s a far cry from the 2022 Federal election. A teal wave fuelled equally by political funding body Climate 200 and distaste for the Morrison government saw six independent candidates roll previously safe Liberal seats that election. An exodus from the major parties also drove electoral success for the Greens — Adam Bandt’s party walked away with a record four Lower House seats. But what did it achieve in the first term of the Albanese Government? That is the question voters likely found themselves asking as they contemplated filling in their ballot this time around. The Coalition heavily campaigned against the teals candidates, linking them with the “extremist” policies of the Greens, based on how Climate 300-backed MPs voted over the past three years. The Prime Minister was equally vociferous in his refusal to do a deal with the Greens, steadfast in his conviction that he could form a majority government. The effect of these twin attacks from either end of the political spectrum and the aforementioned uncertainty may have dampened voting enthusiasm for relatively unknown independents. Although it wasn’t all bad news for the incumbent independents, many of whom were battling what would prove to be an impotent challenge from a Liberal candidate rather than a concerted effort by the ALP to unseat them. Indi (Victoria) and Clark (Tasmania) were called early in the night for incumbents Helen Haines and Andrew Wilkie respectively. In New South Wales, Zali Steggall retained her seat of Warringah, while Wentworth MP Allegra Spender and Mackellar MP Sophie Scamps were on track to victory at the time of publication. Being pooped on by a bird on election day apparently was lucky for incumbent Monique Ryan, who saw a swing her way in Kooyong. However, the Greens giving back two of its Queensland seats to Labor diminished the chances of an increased Lower House crossbench in the 48th Parliament of Australia. Closer to home, independent Curtin MP Kate Chaney faced a stern challenge from Liberal Tom White in the historically blue-blooded seat, but looked to have held on at the time of publication. Of all the independent candidates who didn’t already have a seat in Parliament, Nicolette Boele in Bradfield is one of the few who might see success. But, when the dust finally settles on the Federal election, the story will not be one of an influential crossbench in the Lower House, with the power to shape the parliament’s legislative agenda. Mr Albanese has escaped that fate.