Josh Zimmerman: Here’s a prediction of where portfolios will land in WA State Government’s cabinet reshuffle

Premier Roger Cook has already snubbed one opportunity to dramatically reshape his Cabinet. There is every indication he is preparing to snub another. After replacing Mark McGowan in June, Cook kept his predecessor’s entire ministry intact. The only new face was David Michael, handed an office in Dumas House in place of McGowan himself. That was despite Energy Minister Bill Johnston having privately made clear to Cook his intention to head to the backbench this Christmas, and Finance Minister Sue Ellery being on the record as planning to retire at the 2025 election. The subsequent reshuffle of portfolios was also relatively contained, impacting just four of the incumbent ministers in a meaningful way. In addition to her elevation to Deputy Premier, Rita Saffioti picked up both treasury and tourism on top of transport. Paul Papalia added the controversy-plagued corrective services to police, while John Carey got planning to create a mega-ministry that includes housing, lands and homelessness. Johnston was over the moon about shedding corrective services. But to cushion the perception of a demotion he was handed hydrogen industry to go with energy, mines and industrial relations. The changes made it clear who the incoming Premier viewed as his top performers. Saffioti, Papalia, Carey and Johnston were all loaded up. Add to that group Health Minister Amber-Jade Sanderson and Cook himself, and a disproportionate share of the business of government lay with just six members of the 17-person Cabinet. “This is the team we’re taking to the grand final,” Cook said at the time. The lack of turnover in personnel was a source of frustration among the sizeable cohort of Labor MPs desperate to join the top echelon of government. That was not helped by the fact Cook’s grand final team was clearly top-heavy, while retaining a bevy of ministers viewed internally — at least by those eyeing their seats — as well past the peak of their political careers. The departure of Johnston necessitates the load be shared more evenly. Only Cook and his closest circle know how he will elect to approach that task. But the Premier provided a big hint when he batted away questions about whether Ellery would be asked to join Johnston in Parliament’s departure lounge. That means keeping Ellery in the ministry. And if Ellery is staying, it is difficult to see Cook tapping other members of his Cabinet on the shoulder for a difficult conversation. Instead, first-term Victoria Park MP Hannah Beazley — who has been endorsed by Labor’s right to replace factional colleague Johnston — is likely to be the only new entrant. That leaves the distribution of portfolios. The neatest solution would be to hive off Johnston’s roles to experienced ministers who were left light on by the consolidation of power in June. Energy could fit logically alongside environment and climate action with Reece Whitby, who is understood to have impressed Cook and would assume primary responsibility for efforts to cut fossil fuels out of the power grid. Emergency Services Minister Stephen Dawson — appointed a direct assistant to the Premier in June — must be in the frame for mines and petroleum. As a regional MP with an office in South Hedland, he has strong ties to the resources sector. He is also well-known to the major players from his four years as environment minister. David Michael is highly regarded and has been floated as a future energy or mines minister. But with just six months in Cabinet under his belt, Johnston’s departure may have come to soon for him. His relationship with partner Lenda Oshalem — who recently joined Andrew Forrest’s Minderoo Foundation as executive director of advocacy — is another potential hurdle. Landing industrial relations to go with local government would represent a promotion for Michael without risking overwhelming or conflicting him. Cook is passionate about the hydrogen industry and could opt to take the portfolio for himself. Alternatively, there is an obvious synergy for Regional Development Minister Don Punch. As a novice, Beazley would be expected to pick up relatively minor responsibilities shed by other members of Cabinet as part of more substantive changes. Also worth watching closely is whether Tony Buti emerges from the reshuffle holding Aboriginal affairs. There are some within Labor — and industry — who believe Buti’s failure to develop an effective communication strategy for the Aboriginal Cultural Heritage Act was a major contributor to the disaster that followed. But stripping Buti of Aboriginal affairs would mean the portfolio changes hands for the third time in two years. It would also reopen old wounds and provide a free kick to the Opposition. That’s another thing Cook would surely like to snub.