Mark Riley: Why Katie Allen’s middle road is the only path for the Liberal party’s long-term survival

Katie Allen was never scared to say exactly what she thought. Not in an aggressive way. Far from it. She was articulate, committed and persuasive. But rarely if ever angry. It’s what made her so valued and loved among her Liberal colleagues. When the former paediatric specialist spoke in policy discussions, members of the party room listened. Including Scott Morrison. He strongly supported Allen’s pre-selection for the Melbourne seat of Higgins as evidence of the Liberal Party promoting high-quality women. Her honesty, though, would become a thorn in his side. In the lead-up to the 2022 election, Allen spoke with controlled frankness about Morrison’s problem with female voters and his need to take a stronger stand on climate change. She received spirited backing from her moderate colleagues. But to no avail. Allen lost her seat to Labor. Six others lost theirs to teals. It is a lesson the Liberals might like to contemplate after they gathered on Thursday to farewell Katie, who was taken so cruelly by a rare form of bile duct cancer just two days before Christmas. The Liberal Party continues to stand at an existential crossroads. It has been stuck there for the past eight months, not knowing whether to turn Left or Right. But Katie Allen’s experience showed that although much of the noise in politics rises from the angry edges, elections are always won in and around the middle. That is essentially where Sussan Ley promised to steer the party when she edged out Angus Taylor for the Liberal leadership last May. It is not going so well. Ley has been hampered by the lack of agreed policy and by the fact that each time she gets on the front foot she is knocked back on her heels by less-than-subtle internal destabilisation. That’s politics. And there have been some self-inflicted wounds, like over-playing her hand after the Bondi massacre. So, now, the Liberals are again considering replacing her with one of two conservative leaders — Taylor or Andrew Hastie. The prospective contenders met with Liberal powerbrokers before Katie Allen’s memorial service Thursday morning to discuss which should be the conservative faction’s candidate if there was a spill. The breakfast discussion was not so much a night of the long knives as a morning of the short spoons as they chatted over their tea and coffee. But both Taylor and Hastie would come with considerable baggage. “Angus Taylor’s the guy who took to an election a policy for higher income taxes and bigger deficits,” Jim Chalmers said this week. “And Andrew Hastie makes Tony Abbott look like a sensible moderate!” The main challenge facing the Liberals has been clouded somewhat by the barnyard brawl that has led to yet another Coalition split with the Nationals. But that challenge hasn’t changed since Katie Allen’s pre-election warning in 2022. The Liberals have to reconnect with those moderate urban voters who abandoned them for the teals, while maintaining faith with the conservative side of their base. It is the classic challenge of managing Menzies’ broad church by preaching to both sides of the aisle. And it needs to do that with women voters in particular. That brings into focus Hastie’s faith-based position on a woman’s right to choose. He has consistently opposed late-term abortions, something many Liberal MPs are raising in their private discussions this week as a major hurdle to his aspirations. For Angus Taylor, his greater experience as a cabinet minister and higher-profile role in Liberal politics are both benefits and burdens. His time as minister for energy and emissions and as Peter Dutton’s shadow treasurer provide Labor with plenty of raw material to use against him. It’s likely both putative candidates would attempt to reform the Coalition with the Nationals before the next election so they present a legitimate alternative government. But they would also need to so while traversing the middle road that Katie Allen mapped out as the only true path for the party’s long-term survival. Can either of them successfully do that? That is the real question confronting Liberals as they reflect on the life and lessons of one of their most loved and now sadly lost colleagues. Mark Riley is the Seven Network’s political editor