Tone-deaf Libs opened the door to a mass voter exodus

Malcolm Turnbull won the seat of Wentworth at the 2016 election by 29,850 votes.

That the Liberal Party, and Prime Minister Scott Morrison, are holding out hope they may cling to this piece of eastern Sydney by a handful of votes says everything.

Close to 30,000 people either changed their opinion of the Liberal Party or didn’t bother to turn up to vote for its new candidate, Dave Sharma.

It was an anger focused on a string of issues. The way Turnbull was turfed by his party, the requirement for a by-election, the helicoptering in of a Liberal candidate from the North Shore and pent-up issues such as climate change and Australia’s use of Nauru for asylum seekers.

It could have been manageable but for a late swing to Kerryn Phelps.

That covered the terrible days of last week when Morrison decided to change foreign policy solely with an eye to the by-election while watching his senators fall for a Pauline Hanson race trap. And there was the ultra-late effort by the Nationals to discuss their own leadership issues.

All the excuses in the world can be made but ultimately Wentworth should never have been at risk.

To cap it off, Morrison’s comments to party faithful on Saturday night were tone-deaf.

The Liberal Party made fun of Bill Shorten’s 2016 post-election speech because it sounded as if he had won.

At least he had made ground during an election campaign most pundits had believed would be a clear victory for Turnbull.

Morrison, whose own mistakes contributed to the problems in Wentworth, spoke to the faithful but not to the millions of voters who just want an honest government that goes about its business with a minimum of fuss.

Plenty has been written about how Labor has leached its progressive left wing to the Greens while a working-class left has found hope with Hanson.

The Liberal Party is finding the same problem.

Social progressives, such as those who endorse same-sex marriage or have legitimate gripes about the Federal Government’s inability to develop a coherent energy and environment policy, either have to go to the ALP or look for an independent such as Phelps.

On the right, the allure of Hanson and others is growing.

The broad church, as John Howard used to describe the Liberal Party, has now become something that even God would struggle to hold together.

What should worry those inside the Liberal Party is the way the ALP effectively sat out Wentworth. This was all about the Liberal Party, its policies, its treatment of Turnbull, about Morrison.

The performance of Labor in the recent Longman by-election should be enough of a warning that the Government faces an Opposition that knows what it stands for and knows how to campaign on its core issues.

Labor collected a 3.7 per cent swing in Longman even with the Government throwing everything — including several prime ministerial visits — at the seat.

Wentworth was an illustration of what could happen in seats such as Curtin or Higgins. Longman was an example, however, of what could happen in electorates such as Pearce and Swan and Hasluck.

Christian Porter won Pearce by 6312 votes, Steve Irons took Swan by 5848 and Ken Wyatt’s margin in Hasluck was 3337.

It won’t take many voters in those electorates to change their minds on the Government for it to become the Shorten administration.