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Ryan Buckland: The Economist runs his eye over the results that matter for Fremantle Dockers in last two weeks

Ryan BucklandThe West Australian
There are up to 14 games that still matter in the final two rounds of the season and Fremantle’s top-four hopes will be decided.
Camera IconThere are up to 14 games that still matter in the final two rounds of the season and Fremantle’s top-four hopes will be decided. Credit: Daniel Pockett/Getty Images

There might be 18 games to go in the home and away season but there are only 12, or 14 at most, that matter in the premiership race.

We are down to 10 teams in the running for finals after Port Adelaide and Gold Coast lost last weekend.

The Suns sit 2.5 wins outside of the top eight with only two games remaining with every team below them a further back.

It means they are a zero mathematical chance of playing in September.

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That same mathematical reality has locked Fremantle into the top eight (13 wins and one draw means the club cannot be overtaken by St Kilda in ninth on 11 wins given there is only two games remaining).

The Game AFL 2024

And remarkably every spot in the top eight bar the number one seed is still available to the Dockers.

Fremantle’s win against the Western Bulldogs was critical not just for this reason. After experimenting with more run and carry off the half back line in recent weeks, the Dockers were back to their incisive, quick-kicking best.

July was a testing month, with every game against a top eight aspirant or top-of-the-table team.

The Dockers went 2-3 with victories against Port Adelaide and St Kilda followed by a draw and two losses to Richmond, Melbourne and Sydney.

Through that stretch the Dockers had an average kick to handball ratio of 1.25, compared to the prior season average of 1.37. The ratio against the Dogs was 1.64 — the third highest number of the season. Panicked handballs to players under increasing pressure around the back of the centre square gave way to quick kicks and sharp angles.

Fremantle looked in command for most of the game, with the Dogs only really able to threaten on fast breaks when Aaron Naughton was one-on-one close to goal.

After the game coach Justin Longmuir said it was as much about what the Dogs gave up as a deliberate change of strategy. I’m not so sure, but we will get another look this week as the Dockers come up against the remnants of the West Coast Eagles.

MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA - JULY 22: Jordan Clark of the Dockers in action during the 2022 AFL Round 19 match between the Richmond Tigers and the Fremantle Dockers at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on July 22, 2022 in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos)
Camera IconFremantle returned to a run-and-carry style of game on Saturday and Jordan Clark was a key factor. Credit: Michael Willson/AFL Photos

Where it looked like Fremantle was destined to be something of an also-ran as the top few sides separated from the pack, they now have something to work with. The Dockers seem to be entering the pointy end of the season in as good a shape as any of their fellow contenders on the injury front, with just three players ruled out for the Derby.

With a finals spot confirmed, ladder position becomes the focus. Pushing for a top four spot, and the home final in semifinal weekend at worst.

What are the chances? Fortunately, we can work it out.

Here’s what needs to happen, based on a framework we use in the business called a decision tree. We can do this without a supercomputer because of the limited number of games that matter in the final two rounds.

With 14 games, two teams involved in each, and a win and a loss required in each (we’ll set aside draws), there are 16,384 combinations of outcomes that can happen in the final two rounds. Like I said, we don’t need a supercomputer. One of them is going to happen, it’s just a question of which one.

Across the 16,384 outcomes we find the Dockers finish in sixth spot most frequently (33 per cent of the time), followed by fifth (27 per cent) and fourth (17 per cent). Of greatest importance to Fremantle fans is the line of demarcation between the double chance and a date with an elimination final. This analysis finds the Dockers have a 29 per cent chance of finishing in second, third or fourth.

Unsurprisingly, in most top four scenarios the Dockers need to win against the Eagles and Giants. If that happens, Fremantle cannot drop below fifth, and they then rely on other results to go their way to push up to the top four.

From here, Fremantle needs Sydney to drop a game (against Collingwood or St Kilda) and they’re in. If that doesn’t happen, one of the following can land the Dockers in the four.

-Collingwood lose both of their games (i.e. they lose to Sydney, then Carlton in Round 23)

-Melbourne and Brisbane both go 1-1, at which point Fremantle will jump to third and the team with the weaker percentage will drop to fifth.

If the Dockers drop a game then Sydney must lose both of their games for Fremantle to stand a chance of finishing inside the top four.

It’s possible, but not as likely as the various paths which exist if the Dockers go 2-0.

MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA - AUGUST 05: Ash Johnson of the Magpies acknowledges the fans after the round 21 AFL match between the Melbourne Demons and the Collingwood Magpies at Melbourne Cricket Ground on August 05, 2022 in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Darrian Traynor/Getty Images)
Camera IconFremantle’s top-four hopes rest largely on Collingwood in the next fortnight. Credit: Darrian Traynor/Getty Images

That’s useful, but we can go further, using betting markets as a guide to the probability of the outcomes we’ve discussed above coming to fruition.

If we use market odds we can assign an actual probability of the outcomes rather than considering a world where every game is a coin flip.

Adding this final layer suggests Fremantle’s prospect of making the top four are a little stronger at 48 per cent, with the most common ladder position being fourth at a 30 per cent chance. This analysis gives Fremantle a miniscule 2.8 per cent chance of slipping to seventh or eighth. There will be finals football in Western Australia in 2022.

This week’s chart shows this analysis for the rest of the league.

What’s striking is how close the top six sits with two rounds remaining — every spot is up for grabs, except for the Cats sitting pretty with a 99.7 per cent chance of the minor premiership. They’re clearly now the team to beat in 2022.

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