All eyes on jobs market to see if strength holds up

The strength of the Australian jobs market will be put to the test in the official labour force update.

The April jobs update from the Australian Bureau of Statistics follows a prolonged run of below-average unemployment and robust jobs growth.

In March, the jobless rate shifted higher to 3.8 per cent, from 3.7 per cent in February.

And while 6600 jobs disappeared in March, that followed a sizeable 117,600 employment lift in the month before.

While the cooling economy is expected to flow through to reduced demand for workers and a weaker jobs market, the unwinding has been incremental.

Updated Treasury forecasts from the May 14 federal budget have the unemployment rate moving from four per cent in this financial year to 4.5 per cent in the next.

It’s then expected to stabilise at that level - which is still lower than -re-pandemic levels - for a couple of years, based on the official government forecasts.