Global malting barley market forecast tipped to stay strong

Australia’s barley exports will continue to hinge on demand from China as the world continues its love affair with beer, and the global brewing powerhouse continues to pump out the amber ale. This was one of the key messages from Australian Export Grains Innovation Centre markets manager Mary Raynes who presented at the 2024 Grains Industry Association of WA Barley Forum on July 29. While China takes 80 per cent of Australia’s malting barley, there was also signs of growth in other emerging markets including South America, where premium single malting varieties are particularly sought after. Ms Raynes said in terms of total area planted to barley on a global scale, Australia was only a small player. Despite that, it was currently the biggest barley exporter in the world. “Australia will account for 25 per cent of global barley trade this year — that is a lot of markets we need to find,” Ms Raynes said. “On average, Australia accounts for around a fifth of global barley exports.” Australia’s biggest competitor in this space is the European Union, which during 2023-2024 exported 6700Kt according to USDA World Barley Export figures. Australia exported slightly more at 6900Kt. During 2024-2025, the USDA predicts EU exports will reach 7000Kt while Australia is forecasting a lower 5600Kt. Ms Raynes said barley would continue to be a valuable rotation crop for Australian farmers and investment in continuing to find and grow strong export markets would be essential for their profitability. China is Australia’s biggest barley customer, but Ms Raynes said reliance on this market was not a negative, with forecast demand expected to remain strong in the foreseeable future. Currently China is the biggest importer of barley globally, with 14.5Mt of barley imported during 2023-2024, which accounted for 46 per cent of global trade. While Australian barley exports to China stopped due to trade restrictions in 2021-2022, these were lifted in August last year and since then, 5.4Mt of Australian barley has been shipped. Ms Raynes said China’s demand for Australian barley remained strong, with demand for all malting varieties in particular expected to continue into the foreseeable future. She said despite some reports of a decline in China’s domestic beer consumption, a recent visit to China had confirmed continuing demand for Australian malting barley from Chinese brewers and maltsters. “Demand for Australian malting barley is stable as China shifts towards producing more premium beer,” Ms Raynes said. She said Chinese brewers valued the quality of Australian malting barley which also had a significant freight advantage over EU barley. “Across the world Australia has a major footprint for producing quality malt barley with international brewers,” Ms Raynes said. She said of particular interest was premium malting barley market opportunities that were growing with brewers in Latin America, with this section of the global market a big opportunity for Australian exporters. The Latin American malt barley market was looking for single variety malting barley such as Maximus and Spartacus. Ms Raynes said barley tariffs into Colombia and Brazil were restricting growth in this market space but commercial support from major brewers was there. If tariffs were reduced, she said, this space would represent a valuable malting barley market option for Australian grain growers. Trade tariffs into Mexico, Peru and Chile currently were not as restrictive, with forecast sales into this section of the market expected to reach 158Mt in 2024/2025.