Rain revives WA grain farmers crops and boosts harvest prospects to 19.33Mt after ‘challenging’ start

WA’s grain belt has been given a timely boost — with widespread rain transforming dry, dusty paddocks into scenes of renewed hope and pushing the predicted harvest total to 19.3 million tonnes. The latest forecasts for WA’s grain harvest, released by the Grain Industry Association of WA, mark a solid recovery from early-season worries when many feared the crop’s potential was slipping away. But the rain has been “too little, too late” for paddocks in some parts of WA, with highly variable rainfall totals in recent months posing a challenge for both farmers and those calculating harvest predictions. WA crop report author Michael Lamond, an agronomist at York, said some early-sown crops were now building strong biomass, comparable to bumper harvest years in 2021 and 2022. “To hit these very high tonnages, they will need to continue to receive regular rain and mild finishing conditions.,” he said. “But later-emerging crops, particularly in lower rainfall zones, have just come through the ground or are still catching up. “With the current soil available moisture low in all grain growing regions, the rain from now on is going to need to be above average to achieve a state total of 20 million tonnes of total grain.” Mr Lamond said soil moisture remained low in many part of the grainbelt, meaning the rain that fell from now on would be critical. Wheat crops are generally in good condition, though some late-sown wheat in dry zones like Kwinana North East and South faces yield challenges. The yield potential of canola crops looks set to vary wildly depending on rainfall, while lupins inland have struggled in the cold but are faring better closer to the coast. Oat plantings have increased again this year, but most areas saw a late break and limited rain after emergence. Pulse crops in the Esperance region are off to a strong start, but elsewhere later emergence means growers will need a favourable spring to hit decent yields. One positive of the dry conditions, Mr Lamond said, was that crops had experienced a “dream run” of little to no disease. Geraldton farmers plagued by dry conditions earlier in the year are feeling thankful after a late June break with even crop establishment and rapid growth driven by warm weather and recent widespread rain. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index imagery shows crop development is ahead of last year, with grain yield potential looking good — especially if August and September rains arrive. But many farmers across WA are still looking to the sky for rain, after June rainfall was below average across much of the central, eastern, and southern grain-growing regions. Soil moisture has improved near the coast but remains below normal elsewhere. Looking forward, climate models show Pacific Ocean conditions staying neutral, while the eastern Indian Ocean continues warming through winter. A negative Indian Ocean Dipole is expected to develop in spring, generally bringing wetter conditions to WA’s cropping regions. The Bureau of Meteorology forecasts near-normal rainfall for August, with a stronger chance of normal to above-normal rain from August through October — good news for growers aiming to push through to harvest.