West Australian grain harvest forecast to exceed 17.4 million tonnes: GIWA crop report

WA’s grain harvest has been tipped to exceed 17 million tonnes thanks to a vast improvement in conditions during July and August, according to the Grain Industry Association of WA’s latest crop report. The August crop report, released Friday, predicted a total Statewide yield of 17.438Mt — up from the 16.318Mt GIWA had forecast in July. Crop report author Michael Lamond said the continuation of rainfall across WA grain growing regions, combined with warm weather, had pushed crops ahead of where they were a month ago. “Soil moisture reserves are gradually improving, and crops have accelerated development to be close to normal, rather than behind in growth stages as they were in July,” he said. “In reaction to the season growers have increased fertiliser applications, with crops responding by bulking up to be in a position of high-top end potential if rain continues into spring.” Mr Lamond said if rainfall was in the decile five range for the remainder of August and September — and if the heat held off during critical grain fill periods — WA was well positioned for a spectacular finish to what was a very challenging start in most areas. Not all regions have continued to improve, with areas of the Great Southern and Esperance still well down on average annual rainfall. Mr Lamond said cereals had benefited the most from the step up in rainfall, particularly where conditions at establishment were favourable and crops established evenly. “Canola is going to be down on yield in all areas other than the south coast, the western part of the Albany port zone, and the west coastal regions where the lack of waterlogging is going to result in high whole paddock grain yield averages,” he said. “In all other regions, canola crops are either too late, too patchy, or both to achieve anything other than average or below average grain yields. “Lupins are late but good in the southern regions, and OK-to-poor in the northern regions. “Oats have cracked along, relishing the wet, warm growing conditions and have improved dramatically over the last month to be currently in the higher end of potential grain and hay yields.” He said WA had a relatively large area of crop in the ground this year — around 9 million hectares — which would buffer the downside of production estimates to some extent if spring growing conditions proved unfavourable. Grains Research and Development Corporation western region panel chair Gary Lang said crops around his area in North Wickepin were having a better run than many and had been all year thanks to good rain in May. He said the area had recorded 85mm so far during August, which would set the region up well. “Calingiri through to Hyden — this strip is looking particularly strong,” Mr Lang said. He said while there were some differences between early and late crops, the outlook for the region was positive. West Binnu grain grower Terry Carson said he had had 450mm this year and it was very wet. “We have lost a few acres of canola and some wheat — large areas of canola somewhere between 12 to 15 percent, and about 5 per cent of our wheat,” Mr Carson said. “We have a lot of clay country but there will be other areas that are very happy.” He said they had received 27mm over the weekend which was a stark contrast to rainfall last year. Overall he said the area would have good crops this year. Scott Wandel, who farms north east of Esperance, said the one inch of rain they received over the weekend had had a huge impact on their outlook for the rest of the season. “Everything has been below par but this last one inch of rain will give us the opportunity to realise the potential we have,” Mr Wandel said. “East of Esperance is worse than the west. “We finally got a good rain with 2mm over the weekend and another 15mm overnight (Sunday). “It has recharged our dams which will be good for spraying.” Mr Wandel said what happens in September would be the decider on how the season turns out. GERALDTON PORT ZONE Mr Lamond said the turnaround in conditions in the Geraldton Port Zone “continues to be amazing”, with soil moisture profiles now full or over full, from being completely dry in mid-June. He said saturated profiles had been a challenge for weed control and fertilising crops. Many crops would now be limited by being underdone for nutrition, weeds and the impact of less than perfect establishment earlier in the season. Crops that emerged later were generally in better shape than those that came up early, but patchy, and this was particularly the case with canola. Mr Lamond said the lower rainfall eastern and northern regions of the zone were having an “absolute cracker” of a year, with cereals potentially set to yield more than double their long-term averages in some cases. The normally more reliable medium rainfall regions were not likely to hit those levels. “Even so, the potential for the region to hit 3Mt of total grain production is on the cards if the heat does not come on too early,” Mr Lamond said. KWINANA NORTH MIDLANDS ZONE Crops in the Kwinana North Midlands zone were “very good” overall, with adequate rain and warm growing conditions allowing crops to hit high nitrogen use efficiencies from west to east. “However, crops are a bit behind where growers would like them to be, and this will limit the top end grain yield potential for wheat and canola,” Mr Lamond said. “Barley crops will be less affected, and many, even those in the eastern areas, currently have 3t/ha grain yield potential. In the west, yield potential is well above this. “Barley was substituted for some canola paddocks by many growers as the start to the season pushed out to being later, and this extra area and the good condition of most barley crops will result in a lot of tonnes coming out of the region if the finish to the season is as forecast.” Disease and insects had started to “get a move on” after the warm, wet conditions of recent weeks and growers were advised to get them under control. Green peach aphids had caused havoc in some canola crops in the west, and it was shaping up to be a big diamond back moth year for canola. Sclerotinia was present in canola, as was spot type net blotch in barley and septoria in cereals. Mr Lamond said regular oat hay growers increased their planting by a paddock or two in response to the run down in stocks from the dry 2023 growing season and late break to the season in 2024. These crops were “really kicking in” over the past few weeks and relishing the growing conditions. KWINANA SOUTH Regular rainfall in late July and early August had growers re-loading with nitrogen as the grain yield potential kept increasing. Mr Lamond said the warm conditions allowed crops to make up time in growth stages, bringing them “back to normal” for this time of year. “Soil moisture profiles have improved over the last month as has the crop biomass, and this will need to be supported by more rainfall during spring for crops to hit their current potential,” he said. There remained some gaps in the region where rainfall totals had been light on, but overall the region was in “pretty good shape” heading into spring, with crop grain yield potential sitting at recent averages. “Intended canola area and some pasture was substituted for oats and whilst the split with grain and hay can of course vary depending on price and climatic conditions in the spring, there is certain to be more oats for grain than estimated a month ago,” Mr Lamond said. “This has resulted in total oat plantings in the zone being up by 15 to 20 per cent from 2023. “Oats in all regions have picked up in the last five weeks since the July crop report and grain and hay yields are now on track to be in the upper end of historical yields. “Canola crops look like they are going to need some close management as insects that have been conspicuously absent till now have suddenly turned up.” KWINANA NORTH EAST Mr Lamond said crops in the low rainfall zones of the central grain belt looked “excellent” considering rainfall to date. “In particular, wheat is well grown, well tillered and many crops look to have 3t/ha grain yield potential,” he said. “Although to reach this, there is going to need to be at least another 40 to 50mm of rainfall between now and the end of September, otherwise the yields will slip back to the 2t/ha range.” Mr Lamond said crops on the well managed fallow from 2023 looked particularly good and should hold their potential even if rainfall was light in coming weeks. “Growers responded to the season once it started to rain and ended up planting an extra paddock or two which has resulted in an historically high area of crop planted in the region,” he said. “Canola area in the region has come back from previous years due to the dry autumn and late break to the season, with most growers reverting to a wheat-dominant program. “These large areas of wheat will contribute a lot of grain to the State if the rain keeps coming and the heat holds off, and could result in large swings up or down depending on what happens over the next six weeks.” ALBANY WEST Mr Lamond said crops were in very good shape west of Albany Highway, with these areas having an earlier start than many regions of the State. Lower-than-average rainfall meant there was less waterlogging than usual. “There has been enough rain to keep crops growing and because they went in quite early, they will be buffered from falling away in grain yield potential to some extent if the season cuts out,” he said. Mr Lamond said Barley was the standout this year and most crops were in line for very good yields. “Canola is not far behind, with most well bulked up and in the early stages of flowering, which is perfect for the region,” Mr Lamond said. “Crop potential falls away dramatically east of Albany Highway where rainfall has been less, and crops came up later and patchy in many cases. “This area of lower potential stretches east right across to Jerramungup, with few growers hitting 200mm of rain for the year to date.” He said crops through this area would need a “very good” spring to reach “anywhere near average” yields. ALBANY SOUTH Crops in the south west regions looked remarkably good for the rain they had received. Mr Lamond said overall, crops went in early and were well advanced, with many barley crops now with their flag leaf out. He said the warm temperatures had pushed crops along, accelerating through their growth stages while maintaining biomass. “Soil moisture profiles are low and the rain is going to need to keep falling if crops are going to yield as good as they look now,” Mr Lamond said. “Away from the coast and east of the Stirling Ranges, crops are nowhere near as good, and they will struggle to hit average grain yields.” ALBANY EAST (LAKES REGION) Conditions improved in the past month, with the majority of growers needing to top up with nitrogen as rain in the district picked up in late July and early August. Mr Lamond said cereals had caught up in growth from being behind where they would normally be last month, to many now having at least average grain yield potential. “Rainfall has been a bit hit and miss for growers and there are some areas that have continually missed out,” he said. “Most growers will need a couple of rainfall events of 20-30mm to hit average grain yields.” ESPERANCE ZONE Mr Lamond said conditions in the region improved during July, with just enough rain to keep crops ticking along rather than picking up to the extent they had in most grain growing regions to the west and north. “Very few growers, other than those right on the coast, have received more than 200mm for the year so far and unless there is a couple of decent rains in the next month, crops will simply not have enough soil moisture reserves to handle the inevitable heat that will come during spring,” he said. “The thin coastal strip has benefited from the lower-than-average rainfall this year, resulting in less waterlogging than is normally the case. “All crops on the coast are in very good shape, with noticeably more density and bulk than further north.”