Indigenous Voice to Parliament: Senior Labor insiders fear referendum is ‘dead’

The Voice can’t be won in the west — with senior Labor operatives in the State saying it is “dead” after the failed rollout of the Aboriginal cultural heritage laws. Multiple senior Labor insiders, speaking on condition of anonymity, said there was a widespread belief the heritage debacle — which culminated in an embarrassing backflip earlier this month — had been a “poison pill” for the Voice in the minds of a large chunk of the electorate. Voters across WA were angry Labor was concentrating on the Voice instead of cost of living, health system woes and the rental crisis. One senior Labor member said there were now fears the referendum could be “disastrous” for Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, adding the referendum was “toxic”. Exit polling during the Rockingham by-election even had pro-Labor voters bringing up their anger unsolicited, the insider said. He said the Yes campaign was “dead”, with even the most optimistic considering it “very ill” and in need of a “resuscitation”. That would need a dramatic switch from focusing on inner-city elites towards outer suburban areas. Other sources said the Yes campaign had also been slow out of the blocks in comparison to advocates for a No vote, which had allowed opponents to effectively sow doubt and confusion over the purpose and reach of the Voice. Layering the fallout from the heritage laws on top of those obstacles posed an insurmountable challenge in WA, they said. Illustrating the extent to which the Voice and heritage laws have become conflated in WA, one person reported a recent interaction while doorknocking with the Yes campaign in which the occupant of the house thought the referendum had been scrapped. It was also common for voters to steer conversations about the Voice towards the now abandoned heritage regime — which was overwhelmingly viewed in a very negative light. And while the reception for Yes campaigners was generally positive on the doors of inner city electorates, the opposite was true across the rest of the metropolitan area. WA Labor continues to stridently back the Voice, but the commonly held view is that the only hope for a successful referendum now lies in the Yes campaign securing the backing of a majority of voters in NSW, Victoria, South Australian and Tasmania. A variety of polls have found support for the Voice is on a downward trajectory across the country. The most recent Resolve survey last Sunday placed the national Yes vote at just 46 per cent — with No in front in Queensland, WA, NSW and South Australia. Support was lowest in Queensland (41 per cent) and WA (44 per cent). No public polling has found majority support for the Voice in WA or Queensland since early June, contributing to the perception that both States were cemented in the No column. On the day he was confirmed Premier in place of Mark McGowan, Roger Cook declared his intention to be “front and centre” of the Voice campaign in WA. That role has yet to materialise, although Mr Cook has maintained he expects to begin more actively campaigning for the Voice once a date for the referendum has been set. Not every Labor source believed the Voice campaign was lost, with some holding out hope a concerted sprint to the finish line from the Yes camp could turn the tide. Buoyed by corporate donations, the Yes campaign has amassed millions of dollars in a war chest that is likely to be used for saturation advertising in the weeks leading up the referendum. However, the unanimous sentiment was that there was a mountain to climb to have any prospect of success. To get across the line, the referendum requires both an overall majority of voters nationally to back the proposal as well as securing majority support in at least four of the six States.