Australian news and politics live: Bowen tells Tomago to support community, $1b+ bailout divides

Judo Bank’s chief economic advisor, Warren Hogan, said broad-based inflationary pressures would most likely see the Reserve Bank of Australia start raising interest rates in May, which would see the cash rate climb from 3.6 per cent now to 4.75 per cent by 2027 for the first time since November 2011.

“The problem is the economy’s turned a corner and now inflation’s turned a corner and history shows that this stuff is pretty directional,” he told The Nightly.

“My guess is that we’ll be talking about rate hikes when we get back from summer holidays and we’ve got one pencilled in for November next year but it could be as early as May.”

Mr Hogan forecast headline inflation hitting 4 per cent next year, reaching levels last seen in 2023, which would put pressure on Reserve Bank of Australia governor Michele Bullock to make some unpopular decisions as unemployment also rose from a four-year high of 4.5 per cent now to 5 per cent by 2027.

“This is going to be the biggest test,” he said. “If she provides leadership and is honest with the Australian people, then she’s got more chance of getting this thing under control without creating major problems. There’s no way they can keep inflation in the middle of the target band. They’ll look stupid.”

​Read the full story. ​

Labor’s Jermone Laxale pushed back, telling the MPs opposing that the bill was about fixing a loophole in workplace law identified by grieving parents, and only about that.

“It’s not about anything else. It’s not about a culture war. It’s a bill born from heartbreak and from the hope of Baby Priya’s parents,” he said.

Shadow workplace relations minister Tim Wilson had said on Tuesday night he was proud the Coalition would back the legislation.

Tony Pasin, a South Australian Liberal, says it appeared to be an “unintended consequence” of the bill that it would treat an “intentionally aborted baby” the same way as a stillbirth or a baby who died shortly after birth.

“Paid parental leave… should be available to people who are parents. It should be available to people who wish to be parents, but for the grace of God, have not become parents through that incident or outcome,” he said.

“But it shouldn’t be available, it shouldn’t be available to people who don’t wish to be parents.”

Barnaby Joyce – still a National Party member despite this week removing himself from its party room – called on the minister to clarify the definition of who the changes applied to, saying if it encompassed late-term abortion, “that takes it into a completely different realm”.

“On the extension of it, if that’s where it goes, we have every right not to vote for it,” he said.

A string of conservative MPs have told Parliament they are concerned that legislation aimed at ensuring people who have stillbirths can take their pre-arranged paid parental leave while grieving could support or encourage people to have late-term abortions.

One said that “people who don’t wish to be parents” shouldn’t be allowed to take parental leave.

This comment came despite the Coalition party room deciding on Tuesday to back the legislation.

The discussion around late-term abortions – after about 22 weeks of pregnancy – has become increasingly politically charged despite experts saying it is statistically very rare in Australia.

Barnaby Joyce, Andrew Hastie, Tony Pasin and Henry Pike used speeches in the little-watched Federation Chamber on Wednesday morning to outline their concerns.

Australian home borrowers are set to miss out on a Melbourne Cup day rate cut with inflation surging above the Reserve Bank of Australia’s target range.

The consumer price index hit 3.2 per cent in the September quarter, marking the worst annual reading since the June quarter of 2024.

It was also above the RBA’s 2 to 3 per cent target for the first time in more than a year.

Underlying inflation also grew to 3 per cent, with the trimmed mean the RBA’s preferred measure of price pressures.

Read the full story.

South Australian Liberal Senator Andrew McLachlan has broken ranks with his coalition colleagues, voting in support of a climate bill introduced by crossbench senator David Pocock.

The Climate Change Amendment (Duty of Care and Intergenerational Climate Equity) Bill 2025 would require decision-makers to consider the health and wellbeing of children in Australia when making significant decisions on the environment.

“I support the bill and commend Senator Pocock for bringing it to the chamber for consideration,” Senator McLachlan told Parliament.

“It’s very conservative, it’s actually more conservative than a Liberal progressive position to care for the environment.”

“So, I want to push back on particularly some social media posts which tend to define what a Liberal is and isn’t”.

Murray Watt says he’ll consider a demand from business to halt new environmental standards until the fast-tracking of approvals starts.

The Business Council of Australia’s new request, ​which this masthead reported overnight​, could lead to WA being the first State allowed to do assessments on behalf of the Commonwealth, with talks already in train for a new agreement between the two governments.

Business is worried that, as things stand, the package of legislation is weighted too heavily towards adding more green tape without a concrete timeline for the trade-offs to speed up approvals.

“Look at this point in time, I’m considering all suggestions from all the stakeholders. My overriding priority is to deliver a balanced package with wins for the environment and wins for business,” Senator Watt told The West on Wednesday morning.

“We are having discussions with the WA Government about entering a bilateral agreement around the assessments of projects… All of the terms of those agreements are up for discussion with the WA Government.”

Australia’s biggest aluminium smelter is being reminded of its 40-year responsibility to its workers as it foreshadows a closure, citing rising electricity costs.

Federal government figures are desperate to keep the Tomago Aluminium smelter running and have engaged with both it and state politicians over a bailout reportedly worth more than $1 billion.

Tomago, which is majority-owned by Rio Tinto, says high energy costs have forced the company to consider ending operations when its electricity supply contracts expire in 2028.

Energy Minister Chris Bowen admitted frustration that the parties had not yet reached an arrangement, but said the government would continue to engage constructively with the firm and was “not interested” in a blame game.

“(Tomago) does have responsibilities to the community that has supported it for the last 40 years,” he told ABC Radio National. “But we’re not interested in a blame game here, we’re interested in sitting down with constructive and willing partners in the best interests of workers.”

Read more.

Environment Minister Murray Watt has hauled the Bureau of Meteorology in for a “please explain” over its controversial website update, which has prompted a flood of complaints to politicians from upset users.

But Nationals leader David Littleproud has called for a complete review of the new website, saying it clearly wasn’t giving his constituents in Maranoa – which covers about half of Queensland – the information they needed about recent rain.

“I am hearing from many locals that the new platform no longer allows them to enter GPS coordinates for their specific property locations, restricting searches to towns or postcodes,” Mr Littleproud said.

“As a result, families, businesses and farmers are unable to access vital, localised data such as river heights and rainfall information. Others have found the website difficult to navigate and note they cannot locate the radar function without extensive exploration of the site.”

Read the full story.

One of Australia’s big four banks has warned that Wednesday’s inflation reading will likely come in at the top end of the RBA’s target range, all but killing off the chances of interest rate relief next month.

ANZ economist Sophia Angala forecast Wednesday’s quarterly inflation rate will come in at 0.9 per cent, lifting the overall figure to 2.8 per cent for the year.

“If the data does print in line with our expectation, it does point to the recent momentum of underlying inflation,” she said.

“As a result, we no longer expect a rate cut from the RBA in November.”

Wednesday’s CPI figures are tipped to be make-or-break for interest rate cuts in November, as unemployment rose to its highest levels in four years, opening the door to interest rate relief.

Read more.