WA opinion poll: One Nation hits 17 per cent as new poll puts Basil Zempilas and Rita Saffioti under pressure

A surging One Nation vote is taking a big bite out of support for both major parties in WA, according to a new opinion poll that signals succession planning will be key for the Cook Government. Support for One Nation has more than tripled since last year’s State election for a primary vote of 17 per cent, according to the DemosAU poll. That’s still behind the Liberal’s primary vote and less than polls that have hit 30 per cent support inter-state, but it’s enough to drag both major parties backwards and wipe out the Opposition’s gains under Basil Zempilas. The Liberal primary vote has slipped by nine percentage points since November to 21 per cent, while Labor’s fell five to 36 per cent. “The WA State Liberals will breathe a sigh of relief to find they are still ahead of One Nation, unlike the Federal Liberals,” DemosAU Head of Research George Hasanakos said. “However, One Nation has taken a large chunk of the Liberals’ vote in regional and outer metropolitan Western Australia, and given the situation in other states and nationally, there is a risk that One Nation could still overtake the Liberals. “The WA Liberals have a fight on their hands with the One Nation challenge and Basil Zempilas will have to do more to retain traditional Liberal voters outside of inner metropolitan Perth.” On a two-party preferred basis, DemosAU said Labor was on track to equal last year’s election winning lead of 57 to 43 per cent. But the pollster admitted it’s harder to predict where One Nation’s preferences might flow. “I used estimated preference flows from the last State election,” Mr Hasanakos said. “There is a extra degree of doubt because we have all these new voters coming into One Nation. “For argument’s sake if the preference flow was 10 per cent higher to Liberals from One Nation, that’s (an extra) 1.7 per cent. That’s still a big lead for Labor.” Roger Cook is maintaining a 13-point lead over Mr Zempilas as Preferred Premier, according the poll that surveyed 969 voters. And Mr Cook’s popularity appears to be underpinning Labor’s vote, with deputy Rita Saffioti less popular than the Opposition Leader. The Premier had a net positive rating of six per cent, compared to -3 per cent for Mr Zempilas and -10 per cent for Ms Saffioti. Past leadership rival Amber-Jade Sanderson’s popularity wasn’t tested. The Perth Park redevelopment spear-headed by the Treasurer and Sport and Recreation Minister is shaping as a drag on the Labor vote, with 45 per cent of people surveyed opposing it versus 30 per cent in support. The race-track and amphitheatre at Burswood is due to be finished in 2027, two years out from the next election. But Labor backbenchers will be buoyed by 43 per cent support and only 33 per cent against the Government’s controversial demersal fishing bans. The Premier has argued the restrictions are tough, but necessary. “Not acting now means that we will simply not have these fish at any price in the future,” Mr Cook told Parliament last week. One Nation MP Rod Caddies has joined public rallies against the changes, that include a permanent ban on commercial demersal fishing and a 20-month pause on recreational fishing. He says the short notice and downstream impact on small businesses, like boat shops, are his biggest concern. “Not so much about ban or no no ban, it’s about the implementation,” Mr Caddies said. His party’s national profile is dominated by Pauline Hanson and Nationals defector Barnaby Joyce, but Mr Caddies is optimistic that One Nation’s WA resurgence can be maintained - this time around. “We had a branch meeting on Sunday and 120 people turned up,” he said. “I think it’s here to stay, I think it’s there for you to break. It’ll keep climbing unless you do really bad, like the Liberals aren’t being clear on what they stand for. And I think people looking for strong leadership, they’re looking for a real difference.” Labor holds 16 of the 37 seats in WA’s Legislative Council and can pass legislation with the support of the Opposition or four Greens, but Mr Caddies has warned the Cook Government won’t get everything it wants. “We don’t have the power of having the balance of power or having the numbers,” he said. “But the Labor government can’t just say, too bad this is what we’re doing. It’s a different story, and you’ve already seen that on the floor of Parliament, now they’re having to negotiate.”