Good summer rainfall and La Nina to lead to a productive 2024/25 harvest: ANZ

Good summer rainfall combined with a forecasted La Nina for 2024 has led to an optimistic outlook for the 2024/25 Australian harvest, according to a new report by ANZ. ANZ’s latest Agri Commodity Report has set a positive prediction for the 2024/25 harvest, noting early signs for the grain oilseed supply chain are looking hopeful. ANZ head of food, beverage and agribusiness insights, Michael Whitehead, said while the winter crop was still being planted, farmers across the grain supply chain were already thinking about how the 2024/25 crop could look. “The most recent 2023/24 national harvest, including all grains, oilseeds and pulses, is set to be the sixth-largest ever recorded, despite being around 30 per cent lower than previous year,” she said. According to the report, the national crop mix has been going through changes, which has showcased the flexibility of farmers in changing their annual plantings and pursuing where they predict the optimum levels of demand and pricing will be. “For example, while it was the sixth-highest overall crop, in terms of specific grains or oilseeds, it was the eighth-highest wheat crop, the fifth-highest barley crop and the third-highest canola crop,” Mr Whitehead said. “This is also of great importance to off-takers — including exporters, food and flour producers, malting companies, and feed manufacturers, as they plan ahead on price and availability.” The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences has predicted the overall national crop to rise by around nine percent, based off the past three decade’s overall trend growth. “However, it’s also possible to regard this as a conservative growth estimate, given that the trend forecast was dragged down considerably by the drought of 2018 – 2020,” Mr Whitehead said. “An optimistic outlook for production is arguably good news for producers, given that the ample supplies of mast grains in the world – particularly Russian wheat – would indicate that there may not be strong upward price pressure for some time.”