ABS national sheep flock size estimate expected to rise following radical revision of cattle herd figures

The sheep industry is waiting on a new assessment of the nation’s flock size, following the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ radical revision of its beef herd figures for June 2023 — which saw the number of cattle rise by 3.4 million head. The ABS recently revealed Australia’s beef herd to be 27.8 million strong in mid-2023 — a 14 per cent rise from the original estimate of 24.4 million — after the agency made changes to its data collection and methodology. ABS’ new methodology follows a similar approach to the ABS estimated resident population and takes population inflows and outflows into account. Now, the sheep industry is anticipating a potential rise from the initial 70.2 million ABS calculated on June 30, 2023. Meat and Livestock Australia estimated 76 million head of sheep on the same date. Independent agricultural market analyst Matt Dalgleish said ABS had often under-reported livestock numbers in Australia in the past. “The ABS revisions are much more in line with MLA now, which is good to see,” he said. “The official figures being as accurate as possible is always important.” Mr Dalgleish said it was important for ABS to record accurate livestock data, not only for market choices, but for international players who look to the bureau to assess the state of Australia’s meat industry. The new cattle herd estimate is now within four per cent of Meat and Livestock Australia’s 2023 national herd numbers. In a statement released along with the new figures, ABS said the data was “considered fit for use.” “The revised estimates are consistent with related data sources on cattle fertility, slaughter and herd age structure,” the bureau said. “Externally sourced data has been used only where accuracy can be reasonably measured and verified as part of the quality assurance processes.” The changes to methodology and data collection come after two years of criticisms that the government had been “under-reporting” beef herd estimates because of unreliable data. A report published in 2021 laid bare potential inaccuracies in the ABS’ projections. The new methodology also comes after the ABS scrapped beef producer surveys, which often received poor stakeholder responses and did not include smaller cattle producers whose turnover did not reach $40,000 a year. Mr Dalgleish predicted the revised national flock figures would be an increase on the initial 2023 estimates, but the rise may not be as dramatic as the cattle herd’s. He said this may be because less sheep operations would have fallen from the scope of ABS’ surveying for being too small. “Just by the nature of sheep owners and size of sheep flocks ... I suspect we might not see as big an adjustment as what we’ve seen with cattle,” Mr Dalgleish said. “But, we’ve got to wait and see.”