Australian cattle farmers on track to hit record production at 2.79 million tonnes but many still cautious

Australia’s beef industry is poised to hit record production levels this year, as demand for the “best beef in the world” continues to soar and farmers’ herds continue to improve on the back of good seasonal conditions. But the nation’s beef production could fall within two years, experts say, as drier conditions prevail and producers adopt “more cautious” approach to their farming practices. Meat and Livestock Australia released its latest cattle industry projections on September 1, with the nation expected to reach a record 2.79 million tonnes of beef production, while slaughter is set to reach nine million head. Live cattle exports are set to reach 781, 365 head, while the total number of cattle in Australia would ease slightly at 31 million head, reflecting what MLA said was a “mature and productive” herd structure. A number of factors are driving the production boom, including stable carcase weights, increased slaughter, and strong export demand as Australian farmers continue to fill a global supply shortage. MLA acting market information manager Erin Lukey said the nation’s beef industry was shifting from expansion to “maintaining productivity and sustainability”. “This positions the industry well to respond to both domestic and international demand in the years ahead, ensuring that Australia continues to lead in efficiency, quality and resilience across the global red meat supply chain,” she said. The nation’s cattle slaughter was forecast to rise 8.6 per cent to 9.02 million head in 2025, supported by robust cattle supply and processing capacity. The nation’s average carcase weight remains about 309kg, a historically-high level underpinned by a strong proportion of grainfed cattle in the mix and solid feed availability following autumn rainfall. WA’s South West cattle producer Geoff Pearson, who runs 20,000 head, said Australian beef was the “best in the world”. The fourth-generation beef producer runs 8000 Angus cross Wagyu breeders with an aim to lift eating quality. “Here in WA, particularly in the South West, where its ideal climate, quality cattle hold up against anywhere in the country,” he said. “This has been evident in the national carcase competitions where WA cattle have consistently been successful. “A lot has to do with good genetics and an abundant supply of quality grain and water.” Mr Pearson said demand for Australian beef continued to build. “While domestic consumption is steady, growth in demand is coming from overseas markets,” he said. “With the current bumper grain season and good fodder supplies in WA, we should be right to increase export supply.” Australia’s cattle herd is expected to remain stable in 2026 before easing in 2027 due to potential drier seasonal conditions, but the shifting focus on carcase weights and processing efficiency meant high production levels were expected to continue. “The herd has evolved to support higher turn-off without compromising productivity,” Ms Lukey said. “This is a reflection of improved breeding efficiency and a shift toward more strategic herd management across the board.” Beef exports are forecast to reach 1.5 million tonnes shipped weight in 2025, as Australia continues to capitalise on global supply constraints caused by declining production in key competitor markets such as the United States and Brazil. Ms Lukey said Australia was uniquely positioned to meet rising international demand with the US progressing into a herd rebuild phase and Brazil facing herd contraction following heavy slaughter and drought recovery. This export strength is further supported by Australia’s robust processing capacity, consistent product quality, and long-standing trade relationships across North Asia, North America, and Southeast Asia.