Brian Burke: Promises made at this election won’t come cheap and our children & grandchildren will pay price

Treasurer Paul Keating ignored Bob Hawke’s restraining hand on his arm as he turned angrily on the earnest Victorian Premier John Cain who wanted more money for social justice. “No, Bob” Keating insisted loudly. “They’ve bankrupted Victoria and now they want to send us broke.” It was the private session of my first Premiers Conference and I sat in stunned silence. I learnt two things very quickly — Paul Keating was frighteningly formidable and debt was seductively dangerous. The first is a matter of record — Keating was the best I ever saw — but the second is something forgotten by ordinary leaders who seem to think there’s a magic pudding underwriting the cost of political promises spiralling out of control. They are promises paid for by borrowed money — billions we have to pay back. The amounts are eye watering. More than $9 billion on health; $28b for tax cuts and fuel tax concessions; $10b (conservatively) on housing; billions on defence and the list goes on, and on, and on. Australia’s national debt is projected to reach almost $1.1 trillion with an annual interest bill of more $28b by the end of the next financial year. Billions my children and grandchildren will have to pay back and, like every other parent and grandparent, I worry about that. No wonder Paul Keating sometimes sounds exasperated! In Curtin the Teal member, Kate Chaney, is making up for an independent’s inability to fund extravagance by spending almost $2 million on her campaign. Liberal opponent Tom White will spend slightly less. The result is a coin toss that White might win. The new seat of Bullwinkle is notionally Labor and Mia Davies is the National Party’s best candidate but, as Noel Crichton Brown notes, the urban areas of the seat will be difficult for her. The regional areas will be difficult for Labor leaving Liberal Matt Moran tipped to win a very close contest. Tangney (3 per cent Labor) will come down to who has the biggest following in the large Asian-born voting bloc. In his former life, Labor’s Sam Lim was a dolphin trainer which won’t help much in an election that is too close to call. Liberal Howard Ong has his nose in front. There’s optimism in the Liberal camp In Pearce (8.8 per cent Labor) following big swings against Labor at the State election. Labor’s Tracey Roberts is well regarded. Ian Goodenough, the member for Moore (1 per cent Liberal), lost pre-selection to Vince Connolly and is an independent. Connolly should win but the Labor candidate Tom French has a future. It is difficult to see Andrew Hastie being beaten in Canning (1.2 per cent Liberal). Forty-two-year-old Hastie is ex-SAS and so far right that he makes Peter Dutton look like a communist. With Chinese ships sailing up the coast shadow defence minister Hastie was MIA until scrambling in the past few days to repel criticism. The reason: he’s playing a long game with eyes on the Liberal leadership. Hastie’s election signs don’t mention the Liberal Party. The member for Swan (9.4 per cent Labor), Zaneta Mascarenhas, who won the seat in 2022, is a bit like the blue-faced parrot-finch — very rarely seen and those who report a sighting are usually locked up. Luckily, her Liberal opponent, Mic Fels, is even harder to find. Labor should retain Brand, Burt, Perth, Fremantle (independent Kate Hullet will add some interest) and Cowan while, if the Liberals lose Durack, Forrest and O’Connor, we will have a one-party State. That leaves Hasluck. A Liberal contact told me her party’s polling in Hasluck showed they couldn’t win the seat. I wasn’t shocked because Labor member Tania Lawrence won Hasluck from a very strong Liberal member in 2022 and a redistribution since then favours her. Most importantly, although I’ve not met Ms Lawrence, the reports about her are uniformly good. Typical of those was from former State solicitor Grant Donaldson SC who is regarded by many as the State’s leading silk, who, unprompted said: “I think that Tania Lawrence is excellent. Not only brains but she is interested in difficult things and problems and works hard to understand them think about solutions.” Don’t be surprised if the gap between the two parties begins to narrow as Peter Dutton recovers from a disastrous start when he flip flopped all over the place. The Liberal Party should let Dutton be who he is — he’ll never be warm and cuddly and he did better when he fired up in the third debate. Prime Minister Albanese continues to stumble his way through the daily campaign grind. Unfortunately, there are no Bob Hawkes, John Howards, Paul Keatings, Sir Charles Courts or Neville Wrans striding the Australian political landscape. Not even any Joe Bjelke-Petersons. There’s little affection for either of the major parties and the golden rules still apply — governments lose elections and we never trade down. The default position for many will be to vote Labor. STOP PRESS: Basil Zempilas has made an impressive start as Opposition Leader and that can’t hurt Peter Dutton. I’ve never been a Basil barracker but he has shown maturity and balance dealing with the National Party and in his measured and less aggressive public positioning. He’s now not just talking to fill spaces and breathing through his ears.