MARK RILEY: How little mistakes and big lies could impact the Federal election result

There was a comical moment as Peter Dutton wandered through the farmers’ market in Nowra on the NSW South Coast this week that underlined how small things can become rather large in the intense magnification of an election campaign.

Dutton and his affable advancing team played a game of cat-and-mouse with the travelling media as the Liberal leader navigated his way through the rows of fresh produce while studiously avoiding the aisle containing the eggs.

Why? Because he’d been left with egg on his face during Seven’s Final Showdown on Sunday night after saying a dozen eggs cost $4.20.

Anyone who has done the family shopping over the past couple of years knows that a carton of eggs, if you can find one, costs at least double that.

Hence the determination of the press and TV camera operators to capture a richly metaphorical image of Dutton wandering past the mountain of egg cartons on display.

No such luck. The advancers mapped out a route that denied them such a juicy juxtaposition.

Another seemingly small moment in Sunday’s debate is causing similar discomfort for Anthony Albanese.

His suggestion that Donald Trump might not carry a mobile phone raised more than a few eyebrows.

He couldn’t be serious. Surely?

Trump owns his own social media site, Truth Social, and was previously an inveterate tweeter.

Who could forget “covfefe”?

And we know Greg Norman gave Trump’s personal mobile number to then-US ambassador Joe Hockey in 2018 when the first round of tariffs were imposed.

Small things. Yes. But they can mean a lot in the minds of voters.

It’s a bit like Albanese falling/not falling off a stage. If leaders dissemble and mislead on the small stuff, can you really trust them on the things that matter?

It’s the sort of stuff that has left voters so deeply uninspired by this campaign.

That feeling has been magnified by the constant barrage of misleading claims and counterclaims being slung from one side to the other.

Dutton has consistently promised that he will not cut Medicare services, close urgent care centres or impose co-payment fees on GP visits.

But that has not discouraged Labor prosecuting a fierce scare campaign to the contrary.

And Penny Wong did not say Labor would legislate a Voice to parliament after the election.

She merely suggested that Australians would look back on the divisive referendum campaign in 10 years and wonder what all the fuss was about — much as they do now about the same sex marriage debate.

And Anthony Albanese has insisted on countless occasions that he accepts the verdict of the people and will not pursue a Voice by any method.

Still, Dutton claimed this week that Wong had “belled the cat” on Labor’s “secret plans” to force a Voice on the people through some nefarious form of political subterfuge.

There are many more examples of shameless canards being retailed by both sides during this campaign.

All of it is poppycock.

And none of it does anything to enhance their standing with voters.

No wonder a record number of Australians are poised to vote a third way at this election.

Labor will win on Saturday in my estimation.

The only question is the size of that victory. That largely depends on how much of the voter anger at the Victorian State Government is taken out on Albanese.

The Liberals are expecting to lose.

It was a big ask for them from the outset. The groundswell for change they were hoping to ride just wasn’t there.

The finger-pointing between Coalition headquarters and the on-ground campaign team has already begun.

One strategist tells me it’s “by far the worst campaign I’ve worked on”.

They are already wondering where it all went wrong, preparing themselves for defeat.

It’s all pretty simple really.

The Coalition’s lead in the opinion polls before the campaign was soft.

It was a reflection of voters buying into Dutton’s narrative of grievance and blaming the incumbent knowing there were no consequences in doing so.

But the moment the campaign began and things got serious, voters had a good look at Dutton as the alternative prime minister and said “yeah, nah”.

Albanese started his campaign in January, making a series of big announcements over time that laid down a policy foundation for his run once the campaign was on in earnest.

Labor’s game plan has been clear, logical and largely well-executed.

The Coalition campaign hasn’t been that. But it also hasn’t been the disaster it will be framed as in the post-election analysis.

My analysis after covering 11 Federal elections?

They went too late with too little detail from a leader who appealed to too few.

Albanese has been more relaxed and in control on the hustings than he was in 2022.

He hasn’t been perfect, though. There have been stumbles.

But if Labor does win and finds itself in minority next week it might just reflect on the price it has paid for engaging in a two-way battle of little mistakes and big lies.