NSW State budget 2025: All the winners and losers revealed

The Minns government has announced its third budget, aimed at easing the pressure on housing, upgrading the public transport network, investing in Western Sydney and upskilling in the next generation via schools and TAFE spending. But this will all come at a cost, with the NSW budget forecast to spend more than it earns until at least 2027-2028, albeit citing improvements since the Labor government took office in 2023. In his third budget announcement, NSW treasurer Daniel Mookhey said the government was securing the state’s economy and the essential people in it while accelerating economic growth. “We are making key investments to counter a housing crisis, to support our most vulnerable people, to deliver the schools, hospitals, public transport and roads we need and to back businesses and workers.” This will come at a cost, with the budget running a $5.7bn deficit in 2024-2025 and now forecasted to return to a “modest” surplus until 2027-2028 with the treasure himself admitting “a lot needs to go right for us to achieve this”. Here’s what the budget will mean for you: WINNERS Renters and first home buyers Leading Mr Mookhey’s budget speech was a major commitment to renters, and home buyers “or those worried if their grandchildren will ever be able to afford a home,” with the budget aimed at addressing the lack of supply in NSW housing. In a state government first, Mr Mookhey announced a new “Pre-sale Finance Guarantee” package of up to $1bn, where the government will essentially act as a guarantor for these projects. The scheme will directly add 5000 new homes by going guarantor for developers on unsold properties and will indirectly add 15,000 new homes over the next five years by offering builders the security to start new projects through purchasing unsold stock. The government said these projects are the hardest to finance due to the long time commitments, with the state promising to buy anything that is left unsold. Pairing the “Pre-Sale Finance Guarantee” Mr Mookhey also announced a permanent 50 per cent land tax discount for build-to rent projects. The budget also includes a $5.1bn plan to build 8400 homes for social housing, half of them to be used for survivors of family and domestic violence. Public service workers In previously announced packages NSW public service workers will get a major pay bump starting in the new financial year. Mr Mookhey confirmed the boost to public sector wages will cost the budget $2bn a year. The Minns government previously announced it had reached pay deals with police and rail unions exceeding the 10.5 per cent over three years – including superannuation rises – it budgeted for last year. Under the new agreement for NSW police officers, the starting pay of a Probationary Constable – including loading – will increase from $81,517 to $84,777 and further increase to $97,206 by 2027. The salary of a Senior Constable Level 1 – including loading – will increase from $101,516 to $105,577 and further increase to $121,054 in 2027. Parents and students The Minns Government has announced it is strengthening public education by “fully and fairly funding” public schools with delivering targeted reforms aimed at lifting student outcomes. This includes a $9bn in additional infrastructure spending in the 2025-2026 budget to help meet the needs of NSW fastest growing communities. There will also be $10.4bn in additional revenue also coming from the national government. The government says it is continuing to deliver on previous commitments for 100 new public preschools. Coinciding with a massive cash splash to help solve the housing crisis, the budget has also announced a record $3.4bn investment in TAFE NSW and skills in 2025-2026. The aim is to get 23,000 new apprentices and 4,800 existing workers to enter the construction sector in the next two years by offering free TAFE courses. Western Sydney The budget also had a focus on Western Sydney, with the Treasurer calling the area “the future of New South Wales”. Some of the major cash splashes include $10.8bn over four years for the Sydney Metro West which will connect Greater Parramatta with Sydney’s CBD, $5.5bn for Western Sydney roads and $801.4m for a city to South West Metro – delivering the final stage of the extension to the M1 line. As part of a $10.4bn investment in education, Western Sydney will receive $3.9bn in additional funding to upgrade and build new schools across the area. A further $3.4bn will be invested over the next four years in health infrastructure in the region. Vulnerable children In the biggest boost in the state’s history, NSW has announced an additional $1.2bn will be spent in the sector, to help the 17,000 kids in the system. According to the Treasurer, $797.6m will be spent on fixing the “chronically and tragically underfunded system”, while 2126 case workers will combined get $191.5m pay bump. The government will also announce the first major increase in the foster care allowance in 20 years, which will go up by 20 per cent from January 1 2026. A foster carer of a five-year old will receive $3,411.20 extra a year, taking fortnightly payments from $656 to $787.20 per fortnight. For those caring for a 14-year old, the payment increase is $4,576 more a year, increasing fortnightly payments from $880 to $1056. First Nation communities The Mookhey government has also set aside a further $731.8m to support Aboriginal communities in NSW over the next four years. These payments a $246.8m investment in the Closing The Gap partnership over the next four years, aimed at improving health, education, employment, criminal justice and unlocking economic opportunities. In addition the government will spend $210.2m for the Aboriginal Housing Office to deliver social and affordable housing in NSW and $200.9m to support the First Steps Program aimed at expanding early childhood care. LOSERS Anyone moving house While the budget has included a raft of additional payments to increase the supply of housing, NSW residents will pay a lot of taxes on these properties in the coming years. According to the budget papers, stamp duties and land taxes will once again make up a large part of the state finances. Stamp duty taxes are tipped to rise by 5.5 per cent a year over the next four years. NSW homeowners paid $12.30bn in the current financial year, which forecasted to rise to $15.26bn by 2027-2028. This will add an additional $899m in aggregate, of which $650m are based on underlying macroeconomic growth. Land tax revenue will also increase from $8.2bn in 2024-2025 to an estimated $10.32bn by 2027-2028. Toll road users The NSW government has not ruled in or out an extension of toll relief for NSW residents, which could be a major hit to NSW residents – especially those having to travel further into the city. Currently the scheme sees motorist a maximum of $60 a week when using NSW toll roads but is due to end in January next year. According to the budget papers, so far those living in Western Sydney have benefited the most from the scheme, saving $86.3m between January 2024 and May 2025. But if the scheme is removed, these motorists will once again have to pick up the total toll costs. NSW’s bottom line NSW again received a smaller share of GST despite the “no worse off” payments estimated to be $26.1bn in 2024-2025. According to the budget papers, there will be a 2.1 per cent decline in GST revenue this year compared to the years prior. The budget papers state while GST always fluctuates, NSW has always been a “donor state”, meaning it contributes more to the pool than it gets. If GST was distributed on a per capita basis from 2025-2026, the state would get an additional $12.7bn over the next four years.