Middle East conflict brings trade uncertainty

The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is introducing heightened uncertainty into WA and national livestock markets, particularly around live sheep exports and air freight lamb programs.

Operationally, the impact is already visible.

A live export vessel remains anchored off Fremantle with sheep assembled in feedlots awaiting shipment.

While exports remain legally permitted, vessels still require sailing approvals, export documentation and adequate insurance coverage.

In a conflict environment insurers reassess exposure, maritime authorities tighten approvals and operators must consider crew safety and potential route disruptions.

Air-freight lamb programs face similar pressures, with restricted airspace and rising insurance costs influencing logistics and margins.

Importantly, this is not a collapse in demand.

Middle Eastern customers continue to require protein, both live sheep and chilled lamb.

With Ramadan underway and with mandatory eID tags approaching later in March, this remains a period of traditionally strong consumption.

Domestically, markets have remained resilient. have strengthened to around 95 per cent.

However, conversations with lamb feedlotters this week suggest a regional divide.

Lamb values in WA and nationally have lifted around 20–25¢/kg liveweight during the past 10 days, mutton has edged higher and online auction clearance rates purchasing, while some Eastern States buyers remain more confident following recent rainfall.

Another factor worth watching is freight.

Rising global fuel prices linked to Middle Eastern instability could quickly influence the economics of moving livestock across the Nullarbor.

When national prices sit close together, freight margins can determine whether stock moves east at all — and that is often when the traditional WA discount begins to reappear.