Beyond the Saleyards: Lower processing supply due to flock rebuild

During the past 10 weeks, sheep and lamb analysts have indicated a tightening of processing supply was emerging across Australia’s major producing States, particularly in mutton.

This assessment was based exclusively on the most recent data from this 10-week processing period as compared year-on-year and against five-year averages.

In Western Australia, lamb processing during the past 10 weeks has been modestly lower than year-on-year and slightly below the five-year average.

Sheep processing has declined more sharply year-on-year.

This reduction may reflect not only fewer available sheep following last season’s heavy turn-off, but also a growing inclination among producers to retain breeding stock and rebuild flock numbers.

Victoria’s past 10 weeks of data shows a more pronounced decline in lamb processing compared to year-on-year, with sheep numbers also lower.

When measured against longer-term averages, volumes remain closer to historical norms, suggesting supply is tightening rather than oversupplied.

In New South Wales, lamb processing during the past 10 weeks was lower than both last year and the five-year average.

Sheep processing remains marginally above its long-term average, reflecting residual supply from earlier flock liquidation, though volumes are still well below last year, pointing to increasing retention.

South Australia presents the strongest signal of tightening supply.

During the past 10 weeks, lamb processing was materially lower than both last year and the five-year average, while sheep processing has fallen sharply.

Alongside seasonal impacts, this may also reflect producers holding back sheep to rebuild numbers after significant flock reductions.

Taken collectively, the past 10 weeks of processing data suggests the national market has moved beyond the liquidation phase seen last year.

While short-term volatility remains possible, the data points to a tightening supply environment heading into autumn, with producer retention and early rebuild behaviour increasingly influencing market dynamics.