National agricultural value expected to decline by $2.6 billion in 2025-2026

Low crop and livestock production volumes are expected to cut Australia’s agricultural production value by $2.6 billion in 2025-2026.

The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences June quarter 2025 report revealed the gross value of agriculture is predicted to fall by 2.8 per cent to $90.7 billion.

Australian crop production values were expected to fall by $2.1 billion, and livestock production was expected to decline by $0.5 billion as a result falling production values and volumes.

Despite the forecasted fall, the total value of $71.7 billion for 2025-2026 was expected to be the third highest recorded export values.

Southern WA’s winter cropping season has had a strong start as a result of favourable weather conditions, according to ABARES executive director Dr Jared Greenville.

He said other regions, including WA’s northern cropping region, were highly dependent on rainfall “especially where there is a total lack of soil moisture”.

“The rainfall outlook for these regions is currently positive, which is embedded in our current forecasts. but if not realised creates a downside risk to national production figures,” Dr Greenville said.

“Despite the risks, the overall seasonal outlook is positive but is expected to lead to lower production than last year.

“Nationally, an expected fall in crop production in 2025-26 will lead to a $2.1 billion fall in crop value and $0.5 billion reduction in livestock and livestock product values.”

The report said the United States remained an important market for beef and other meat products, which makes up almost one-third of total Australian meat exports, with trade expected to remain “robust” despite trade uncertainty.

Dr Greenville said grain export volumes were expected to be resilient despite uncertainty around global trade policies.

“Australian agricultural exports are expected to be supported by tightening global grain stocks, demand for Australian red meat and a relatively low Australian dollar,” he said.

Broadacre farming is expected to fall by $28,000 from $169,000 to $141,000.