Australian cattle herd reaches decade high at 28.7 million head as prices stabilise

The national cattle herd is on track to reach its highest numbers since 2014, at 28.7 million head, as Meat and Livestock Australia forecasts a stabilisation in prices below 10-year averages.

The MLA Cattle Industry Projections update, released on June 20, revealed the growth of the cattle herd was expected to result in a high supply of both young cattle and finished weight animals to market well into 2024.

When it reaches its peak later in 2023, stocking rates in southern Australia, particularly in New South Wales, will be at levels well above long-term averages, while Northern Australia will develop its herd rebuild on the back of a strong wet season.

According to MLA senior market information analyst Ripley Atkinson a continuation of female retention in northern regions will ensure the rebuild continues, while the breeding herd in southern Australia will reach levels above long term averages in 2023.

“The longer-term outlook of higher supply is ensured, with the above-average marking rates continuing despite a forecast return to average or below-average seasonal conditions,” Mr Atkinson said.

“The genetic investment producers have made in building a productive, fertile breeding herd during the past three years will contribute significantly to delivering continued high supplies of young cattle into 2024.”

Beef production is forecast to strongly increase this year as a result of improvements in processing capacity so far in 2023, higher slaughter volumes and historically elevated carcase weights.

Slaughter for 2023 is forecast to reach 6.95 million head, a revision upwards of 5 per cent or 325,000 head on MLA’s January figures.

Strong numbers of grassfed steer turn-off from key production regions of Queensland, including the Channel Country, and significantly higher numbers of cast-for-age cows as numbers of breeding females on-farm allow the turn-off of older stock, are expected to be the key drivers of higher volumes.

“Processors are continuing to manage higher supplies of slaughter weight stock and this trend is expected to continue for the remainder of the year,” Mr Atkinson said.

He said so far in 2023, the cattle market has operated as it typically does throughout the first six months of the year.

“It’s not uncommon for higher turn-off of stock leading into winter to place downward pressure on price,” he said.

“However, the previous three years have been the exception due to the rebuild following years of drought, and the impacts of COVID.

“In considering these major events, it is important to acknowledge these years were outliers when it comes to examining trends in cattle prices.”

MLA is forecasting a stabilisation in prices relative to the volatile market of 2022, with levels 13.5 percent or 85 cents below the 10-year average for both the Eastern Young Cattle Indicator and the Feeder steer.