Threatened Species Commissioner Fiona Fraser says bird flu outbreak ‘almost certain’

A leading scientist has warned that it’s a matter of “when not if” the highly contagious H5 strain of bird reaches Australian shores, with experts wargaming worst-case scenarios and potential impacts on the country’s food security.

Australia, New Zealand and the Pacific Islands are the three remaining areas in the world untouched by H5 bird flu, with Threatened Species Commissioner Fiona Fraser saying Australia is “essentially surrounded” ahead of the spring migratory bird season.

“We literally have millions of either sea birds and shore birds reaching Australia’s shores, and they essentially land all around Australia, along our wetlands (and on coastal) areas to breed,” she said,

“So the risk of incursion is all around Australia at any point of time.”

The grim prognosis comes as the government has committed an extra $12m to bolster Australia’s response to an outbreak, bringing total funding to $100m.

Dr Fraser said the disease would “almost certainly” reach Australia’s shores, as it had in North America and even in Antarctica.

“Once it reaches here, we will not be able to prevent its spread in nature, and we will not be able to eradicate it in nature, but what we can do is build the resilience of our native populations to better withstand this disease and take important efforts for our captive species,” she said.

Emergency Management Minister Kristy McBain said the National Emergency Management Agency has spent weeks pre-planning with states and territories, industry and civil groups on “what it would look like if there was an avian bird flu outbreak”.

She said this included worst-case scenarios such as if there was a “convergence of multiple emergencies” occurring at once.

“It brings in industry groups and a range of emergency-focused personnel to look at … what it would look like if we had an outbreak of the H5 bird flu at the same time that there was an impact of bushfire at the same time that we had a cyber attack,” she said.

“It’s a situation of government agencies preparing about what it may look like and how you would respond.”

Speaking on the likelihood of eggs shortages and mass chicken culls as a result of the H7 bird flu outbreak in 2024 and early 2025, Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry Minister Julie Collins flagged ongoing conversations between industry, retailers and government.

“We have learned a lot from the H7 outbreaks that we’ve been able to successfully eradicate (it) in terms of our food supply system,” she said.

Ms Collins also said the government was working through a national food security strategy to safeguard against risks.

The work is slated to be finalised in 2026 to 2027 and will also result in the establishment of a national food council.

The Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry’s first assistant secretary within the biosecurity animal division, Brant Smith, said meetings with industry groups like Egg Farmers of Australia and the Australian Chicken Meat Federation were happening weekly.